Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Year Of The Triangle

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It has been a narrow range week on SPX, and for me the obvious read is that a triangle is forming on SPX/ES, with another possible triangle forming on NDX/NQ, and RUT/TF ploughing an independent furrow. I show the possible triangles on the ES and NQ charts below, though I’d note that Stan is not regarding these as high quality triangles.

RUT made the double top target at 1410 while SPX and NDX have been trading sideways. I’d note though the clear falling channels now established on both RUT and TF, and that buy signals are brewing on the hourly chart while the next obvious target within the falling channel is channel resistance, currently in the 1420/1 area. RUT 60min chart: (more…)

Quick Update

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Just a quick update before I head out to dinner.

The first trading day of the month generally leans strongly bullish, but as I mentioned on twitter last night, that’s not the case in August, closing green about 33% historically and with SPX closing down five of the last six.

ES has been trading mainly above the weekly pivot so far this week, but hasn’t yet convincingly converted that to support yet. NQ and TF spent most of yesterday and all of today under their weekly pivots, and if ES/SPX retests the all time high to make the second high of a double top, that should be doable without either NQ or TF breaking back over their weekly pivots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that retest. (more…)

The Future Is Always Uncertain

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I posted the premarket video I did today for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net on my twitter before the open, and if you missed that you can see that here. I try to post one of these here a week as it also gives updates on the futures for USD, oil, nat gas, gold, 30yr treasuries, copper, coffee, sugar, cocoa and wheat as well as the usual ES, NQ & TF.

I did the SPX & RUT charts below on Saturday so they don’t include the action from this morning so far. I’ll be adding update notes to cover the action so far today.

On RUT I was looking at the low last week at short term rising wedge support. While that support was holding an all time high retest was very much on the table. That has broken this morning and that opens a high probability double top target in the 1410 area, and a target within the larger channel at channel support, currently in the 1373 area. RUT 60min chart: (more…)

Everything But The Squeal

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The title phrase above is one I’ve always liked as it has a certain elegance and economy that appeals to me. It’s talking about how every part of a pig can be cooked and eaten. That doesn’t just apply to the pig of course, in China the description ‘heart of wolf, lung of dog’ can be applied to people as a statement that they have no redeeming features at all, as these are famously the only parts of any animal that cannot be used in cooking to make something nutritious and edible. Useful to know for anyone that has been hesitating over their first try at preparing panda testicles, sea-lion sphincter or alligator hide.

What’s my point? Well everything is in place for this pullback except the pullback itself, though that may at last be getting started as I have been preparing this post. If that can be sustained into breaks and conversion of the weekly pivots on ES, NQ and TF to resistance, then this show can finally get onto the road. (more…)

Once More Into The (Potential) Breach Dear Friends

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The rising wedges that I was looking at on Thursday broke down and have been retesting the all time highs last night on NDX, and this morning on SPX, with another possibly coming on RUT though Stan’s thinking lower high there. We are looking for a failure today on SPX anywhere from a marginal new high up into the 2482 area, and so it’s possible that this short term high is already made. On the bigger picture this is a possible swing high, but we’ll have to see whether any serious breakdown can be sustained from here. This has been a very persistent uptrend. I posted the premarket video that I do every morning for Daily Video Subscribers at theartofchart.net on my twitter before the open and if you missed it then you can see that here. As well as equity indices that also covers DX, CL, NG, GC, ZB, HG, KC, SB, CC & ZW of course.

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