Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Chop Chop

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Short term rising channel support was broken at the lows on SPX yesterday, and that break was confirmed with another break below this morning. My working assumption is that SPX is now in a topping process for the final move into the swing high that we are looking for here, and it’s possible that swing high was made yesterday, though there are good reasons to think that there is still one more new all time high on SPX that I’ll be looking at on the ES chart. In the meantime SPX is still holding the 50 hour MA, currently at 2392.50, as support and while that remains the case I still like the ATH retest. SPX 60min chart:

170510 SPX 60min

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Support Levels on SPX

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Looking for an AM low this morning before ideally a push up to retest the Sunday night globex high on ES, target area on SPX for that would be 2407/8 area. I’ve been looking at the important short term support levels on SPX and they are the 5dma currently at 2393.5, short term rising channel support currently in the 2392.5 area, and the 50 hour MA currently in the 2389.50 area. My lean is that none of these levels are likely to be broken before the Sunday night high is retested. If the short term rising channel breaks then my working assumption would be that SPX has moved into a topping process for a swing high that should last a few months. SPX 60min chart:

170509 SPX 60min

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New All Time High On SPX

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ES made a new all time high overnight and SPX has made a very marginal new high this morning. I regularly hear that highs made in globex are always retested in regular trading hours, and that isn’t true, and is demonstrated to be untrue on a regular basis, but these globex highs are retested at least three times out of four, and most likely we’ll see that here.

SPX has a decent rising channel established and rising channel support is in the 2390 area. That’s in the same area as the 50 hour MA, and I’m expecting that to hold until this move enters the topping process. SPX 60min chart:

170508 SPX 60min

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The Yawn Has Been Strong In This One

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I didn’t manage to get a post out yesterday which is always a risk as Wednesday is my busiest day. The tape was dreary and neither bulls nor bears could manage to sustain a move for long but that’s often what happens when a retracement flag is forming, and that is still likely what we are looking at here.

On SPX bull flag resistance is in the 2391.5 area and interestingly the equivalent flag resistance on ES has already broken up. The falling wedge on the hourly RSI 14 has broken up with a target at 70 on the hourly RSI 14, and SPX is still trading around the 50 hour MA at 2388. That needs to be converted to support to open the upside, or resistance to open the downside. SPX 60min chart: (more…)