Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

NDX Topping Setup Completes

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I had a couple of overhead targets that I was looking for this week, and the chances of making the ambitious one on SPX in the 4350 area finally withered and died with the hawkish FOMC comments yesterday.

The more important one was on NDX however, and that has completed as expected this week, with the final part of the topping setup there completed with the new all time high today.

There is now a very attractive nested double top setup there, and a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal is brewing.

NDX daily chart:

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A Strange Start To June

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June is not a bullish month historically on SPX, but it does have some bullish leaning days. Today, the second trading day of the month, is historically the strongest day of the month, with 76.2% green closes on SPX. Yesterday runs equal with Tuesday 15th June for second most bullish day of the month with 66.7% green closes.

Now these don’t always deliver by any means, as if they did the averages would all be 100%, but in a setup where there is obvious unfinished business above at the retest of the all time high on SPX, they generally would, so it is interesting that as the second trading day of June draws towards the close, there is little sign so far of the bulls showing up for work.

Just to review the overall position here. SPX is in a high quality rising wedge from the March 2020 low. Wedge support is currently in the 4110 area and wedge resistance currently in the 4310 area. The next obvious target is a retest of the all time high on SPX, and if SPX continues higher then the next trendline resistance within that rising wedge is that rising wedge resistance, now in the 4310 area, and rising of course.

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A Short But Winding Road

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In my premarket video this morning at theartofchart.net this morning I was looking at the very attractive looking setup on the index futures for a sharp retracement, and since then an H&S has broken down that would look for the 4165 area on ES. That would be a backtest of the daily middle band as support, and as I was explaining looking at the ES chart particularly, this retracement may well go deeper towards the 4100 area.

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Candidate Retracement Low

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In my last post on Tuesday I listed the three obvious targets for the current retracement from the all time high on SPX. The highest was the rising support trendline from the March 2020 low and that target was hit at the low yesterday. So far that has delivered a large rally and may well be the retracement low.

If so, then that confirms a rising wedge from the March 2020 low and delivers a clear target for the move of that low at rising wedge resistance, currently in the 3287 area, but rising of course. Possible resistance at the current all time high, but no particularly obvious reason to think that resistance would be found there.

SPX 60min 16Mo chart:

SPX min
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