Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Psychology of Trading, Part 1

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Editor’s Note: TnRevolution has been a loyal and generous Sloper for many years. He has put together a series of essays for the site that I am very pleased to share. Thank you, TNR!

Decisions & Emotion

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to my Slope family!  I am excited to announce I will be publishing a new series on the Psychology of Trading, beginning with our first chapter on “Decisions & Emotion”.  The series will include scientific and theoretical research, trading techniques, psychological study, practical applications, as well as some of my own personal experiences.  I hope you enjoy it, and get some golden nuggets from the work.

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Ambiguity

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am·bi·gu·i·ty

/ˌambəˈɡyo͞owədē/

noun

  1. the quality of being open to more than one interpretation; inexactness.

Learning to deal with ambiguity is a key skill for the trader and investor.  We like certainty.  It makes us feel good.  The first time when something we are certain of in the market goes the opposite direction it can be wildly jarring.  Growth is possible here, the results of which can be very profitable.  This is where learning to identify and manage ambiguity is key.  Understanding this about your inner makeup is a key first step. 

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Timber!

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Rev can talk about something other than gold? Yes, yes he can… When’s the last time you looked at lumber prices and their implications on interest rates? There’s a correlation? Yes, there is.

First, let’s take a long term look at lumber prices. Below is a ten year chart of lumber prices. From their early 2009 bottom at 137.9, lumber prices rose steadily, but not dramatically for the next few years. However, after their 2015 bottom, lumber would start a three year rise that would culminate in their 2018 blowoff top at 648.5.

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