Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Downside Targets

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Yesterday we saw a decent decline which was well overdue and, of the two fixed daily sell signals still fixed on the US indices, the one on DIA reached the possible near miss target, so I’m now disregarding that one, though a follow through decline that closes significantly lower today would likely reach the full target.

DIA broke slightly below the daily middle band, but rallied to effectively close on it, so no clear break. So far for me then, the daily middle band is still holding as support.

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Small H&S On Bitcoin

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been retracing for a couple of days now and I mentioned on the premarket video yesterday morning that a possible small H&S was forming that might deliver some more downside. Since then that H&S has finished forming and has broken down with a target in the 63,500 area.

Now there is always a chance of course that an H&S may reject back up to the high, and if we see that here, this H&S would fail with a target back at a retest of the last high at 69.5k on a break back over the right shoulder high at 67,801.

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Three Rising Wedges Update

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I’ve started to change on shorter term charts to using SPY rather than SPX, QQQ rather than NDX and DIA rather than Dow as I’ve got the impression that would be more useful for most people. Feedback very welcome if anyone has a view on this.

I was saying on Thursday last week that I wasn’t expecting to see anything particularly impressive on the downside, but there were three decent rising wedges from the August lows on SPX, NDX and Dow that I’ve been watching, and a couple of short term double tops that might play out. That’s still mostly the case so I thought I’d do a quick update post on that today.

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Proof Of Life

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I was looking at this rising wedge on SPX posted on twitter earlier this week by someone with the comment that the break above this week is a bearish overthrow that would likely precede a break down from the wedge and then a likely 38.2% to 61.8% retracement of the wedge. Obviously I’ve been posting that wedge and looking at it every day in my premarket videos for weeks, and it is a very decent quality pattern, but I’m doubtful.

If we were going to see that retracement happen, then the obvious time to do that would have been over the last four weeks or so, in the obvious bearish window into late October. That didn’t happen, so unless we see some evidence that the bears are still in the game, I’m going to remain doubtful.

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Hard Break Up On Crypto

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Yesterday afternoon I sent a quick update post to all the subscribers at my Crypto SubStack to warn them that there was now a high quality bull flag setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that on a break up would look for a target at a retest of the September high at 66.5k. I also noted that the hourly RSI 14 sell signal that had formed and fixed as Bitcoin was hitting flag resistance had reached the possible near miss target. I was thinking of circulating this more widely but SubStack was having issues yesterday afternoon, so I thought I’d just cover this in a post today.

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