Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Looks Like the Guggenheim (by Springheel Jack)

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SPX came within three points of the daily middle bollinger band on Wednesday so that is no longer a target. ES broke over the strong resistance area at 1386-8 after the close on Wednesday and consolidated above it for much of last night so that is now key support.As I've mentioned before there are some serious resistance levels just above and on the daily chart they are in the 1394 area at the middle bollinger band (often closing rather than intraday resistance) and the intersection around 1400 of declining resistance and broken rising wedge support from the October 2011 low:

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Bull and Bear Options (by Springheel Jack)

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SPX had a very strong day yesterday and closed slightly over the 200 DMA. There has been a remarkable change in sentiment and the intractable problems of last week all seem to be relatively small bumps in the road ahead this week. Have we really seen a major low that will trigger a big new bull run? Possibly, but I'll need to see some more evidence first. 

I'll lead with the ES chart today, as that expresses best the main two technical paths for today. On the bear view, with this being a strong oversold bounce in a downtrend, the obvious upside target is rough declining channel resistance in the 1405-10 area. The overnight action looks like a bull flag so we could see a move directly to that channel resistance, with the big caveat that there is very strong resistance in the 1386-8 area. 

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Reversal Setups and Yen (by Springheel Jack)

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I've mentioned often before that short term reversal setups often get steamrollered in a strong trend on a larger timeframe, and I'm mentioning that first before I outline the promising looking short term reversal setups on equities this morning. The action yesterday before the close and so far since yesterday's close is also not hugely encouraging. Nonetheless here it is ……

SPX has obviously been riding the lower bollinger band downwards on the daily SPX chart. Yesterday there was an attempt to break up from the lower BB which failed, but in the event that we see a rally here the obvious target would be the daily middle bollinger band, with a likely hit somewhere in the 1405 to 1415 area, depending on the time taken to reach it. Here's how that looks on the daily SPX chart:

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Dividing Lines (by Springheel Jack)

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The retracement that I was talking about yesterday has been happening, but not quite as I expected, and while I'm still leaning bullish here, that might change today. On ES a little H&S has formed from the high and that has already broken down with a target at 1435. I said yesterday morning that my bull/bear line was support at 1444.5 and that's still true, but the likelihood that will be broken has increased considerably since then:

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