The tape didn’t actually move much yesterday, but nonetheless the bears had a very decent technical day. On SPX It looks very much as though the possible falling wedge I posted yesterday morning may be in play, and if so that is very significant, because in this context that would be an EW ending diagonal, a terminating pattern that in turn is the final move within the much larger rising wedge / ending diagonal from the October low. I’m very much liking the odds of putting in the spring high in this area.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Interest Rate Repulsion
I thought oil would be my superhero today, considering how things started, but it turns out my TBT short was actually the real winner. Interest rates tagged the descending blue trendline I’ve drawn below, and since then TLT has been firming up smartly. TBT, the double-short ETF based on treasury bonds, has been wilting mightily today, and it may well continue to do so into next week.
Some Bold Projections
SPX gapped down hard below the daily middle band yesterday and rallied to close just under the middle band. What I would like to see now is a break back over the middle band, and then a fast move back to the daily upper band to make a marginal new all time high. I’d be looking for the 2015 high at that marginal new high, and would then be looking for a 300+ handle decline to retest the October low at 1820, with a rally on the way to establish an H&S right shoulder at the likely 1972 area neckline.
Bonds in Perspective
The world is getting hyped up about bond yields lately with bonds of all stripes declining, as if we are in the midst of a debt Armageddon (we are and have been in the midst of a decades-long and still intact ‘debt for growth’ Ponzi operation). Here is some perspective…
Bounce Coming on Bonds ……. Probably
SPX broke the short term rising channel yesterday as well as the daily middle band. I’m not seeing any strong reason to think that yesterday’s low won’t be retested and if so there is strong support at the last significant low and the weekly middle band, both at 2072. A break and particularly a close below would open up a test of double top support at 2039. Overhead resistance is at the daily middle band at 2096 and bulls really need to get back over and hold over the 50 hour MA at 2108. SPX daily chart:
