Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Melt-Up

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As is often the case during the bounces: (a) I was right about its coming (b) I didn't profit from it. Seeing the bounce come was relatively a piece of cake. I've repeatedly shown over the past few days how the indexes have gotten beaten down to very clean support levels. It was high time for a rally.

My failure to profit from it comes from two places. One is a distaste for trading against the primary trend. And two is losses on both Friday and Monday to "play the bounce" (these losses were small, but losses nonetheless). Indeed, moments before the close on Monday, I placed a trade for a substantial position in Russell 2000 April calls, but I set a limit price that wasn't met, and it was never filled. So it goes.

The key difference between, say, a year ago and now is this – – – I love rallies! I love 'em to pieces! Because, just as bulls like to "buy on the dips" during a bull market, bears love to sell into strength in a bear market. I'd much rather be being puts after a day like today (with the Dow up an incredible 416.66 points) than the day prior.

Observe the tinted area below. This is what I call, to coin a phrase, the Rectangle of Resistance. It is our ally.

A similar situation is found in broader indexes.

I held on to virtually all my positions today (and I got smacked around good, to be sure, but it only meant my obscene profits got less so). I intend to reload in the land of gold and oil.

 The only really "green spot" among my portfolios today was in my IRA account, whose contents you'll see here on the blog under Long Positions. With the latest Fed attempt to rev things up, battered stocks had a fine day.

I'm pooped from my business trip, so I'll close here. I'm sure the comments section is probably stark raving mad (particularly since Beanie finally had the opportunity to spout off about how bullish things were), but I haven't had time to meander in there. In a day or two, blocking should be in place, and we can get rid of some of the other riff-raff polluting our corner of the world here.

Of All Days……

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So today I woke up in a miserable mood, had to give a one hour talk, and was on a plane for two hours – – all while the market is up almost 400 points. I knew a bounce was coming, but nowhere this fast. Wow.

What am I doing now? Buying OIH and RUT puts. I'd buy XAU puts too, but the bid/ask is absurd. I think we could be in for more bounce from here, but I'm OK nibbling at some new positions.

I'm sure comments is a zoo, but I've have no time to peek in.

Reload

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And there it is. Rainy Day Bailouts #12 and #35 by the Fed.

I'm glad. I'm glad I didn't have any index positions, since my concerns about where we were on the Fibonacci were well-founded. And I'm glad to be given the chance to reload at attractive prices.

I'm sorry to be so 'thin' on content right now, but I'll make up for it later.

Unigraph

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My Internet connection is miserably slow, so I think I'll go through charts early in the morning before the open. It was a great day for oil and gold shorts – – – those have been doing fantastically – – but I remain extremely cautious about a strong bounce. The IWM seems to have been badly wrung out, and although I've been wrong on this before – – witness today's 150 point drop (approximately) on the Dow – – I still am devoid of index positions and am playing it defensively.