Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

100% Pure Bear Once More

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Well, that didn't take long, did it?

I started the day with fifteen call positions (including some big ones on FXI and OIH), and I sold 'em all. Every one of them. I made a nice profit on just about every one, with a couple of minuscule losses here and there.

So I'm 100% in bear mode again, having exited during today's big rally. I've got 50 positions – 25 in one account, 25 in the other – and all of them are puts, including a few monster-sized index puts.

See, I may be a traitor to the cause, but my betrayals are measured in hours, not months. I'll excuse myself at this point because I'm doing an "open house" on Investools.com. I'm not sure if I'll have time to post again today, but I hope my multiple posts during the Easter weekend grant me some forgiveness among you.

Economic Pi Cycle

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This is ridiculous. It's something like my 4th post over the long Easter weekend. Anyway.

I read with great interest an article about Martin Armstrong's Economic Pi Cycle.  I am always seeking an orderly framework to understand disorderly-looking markets, so this was terribly alluring to me in its simple elegance.

A cursory comparison of the key dates versus the S&P 500 yields mixed results. Some of the dates presented are uncanny (October 18, 1987; November 6, 2002; February 24, 2007, to name a few) whereas others seem to hold no meaning.

I was particularly drawn to understanding this since the latest "turning point" is this weekend! Supposedly this indicates a bottom or top in the market.

I'm a little disappointed the "hit rate" isn't better for these dates. I'd be interested in hearing thoughts from others.