Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Calls of the Wild

By -

What a week. I'm ready for a break. So this is going to be short.

I know some will consider me a traitor to the cause, but I assure you, my bullish outfit is (a) temporary and (b) not complete. I've still got a variety of puts, mostly in oil-related items. But I've accumulated a lot of calls today, since I think we could be nice for a nice-sized bounce.

I will note at this point I have no index positions of any kind, either bullish or bearish. I am too uncertain about the near-term direction of indexes to take any position.

However, as a change of pace, here are the items on which I bought calls today.

Happy Easter, everyone…………..I imagine I'll be quiet until Monday. Bye!

180 Degrees

By -

At the risk of seeming terribly capricious (or worse, a traitor to my beloved readers), I have:

  • Closed all my index puts
  • Have bought index CALLS on RUT and FXI
  • Have closed my OIH and XLE puts
  • Have bought CALLS on OIH and XLE
  • Am continuing to take profits on puts and reorient myself for an upmove.

I'm a bear, but I'm not a zealot. My goal is to make money. I like how China is looking in particular.

Surprisingly Placid

By -

Considering the insanity of the past 8 trading days as well as the quadruple witching going on today, I'm amazed how quiet things are. This feels like the calmest day of the entire week!

I've trimmed back some on OIH. I still feel great about oil-related bearish positions in the coming weeks, but I don't mind taking some cash off the table since we're boinking around a long-term trendline at this point.

My call on XAU was superb. My close was good, but not superb! I was a day early. Ah, well. Lots of worse things could have happened!

As for the index markets, I am feeling more cautious and defensive. It's all well and good to have our "rectangle of resistance", but there is some pretty serious basing going on, tinted below, which could provide enough strength to blow that rectangle out of the sky in the weeks ahead.

That Amazing GBP/JPY Pattern

By -

At the beginning of 2008, a reader mentioned what a nice head and shoulders pattern the FX symbol GBP/JPY was (for the non-initiated, that's the ratio of British Pound to Japanese Yen on the foreign exchange market).

The pattern wasn't just nice. It was breathtakingly perfect. Using the simplest method for measuring a price target, I took the highest price (reached on 7/22/2007, $251.14) and the neckline price ($221.05, marked at 3/5/2007) and calculated the difference, which was $30.09. I then subtracted the difference from the neckline price and got a target of $190.96 (that is, 221.05 minus 30.09 equals a target price of 190.96).

This week, on 3/16/2008, the price reached 192.48, which is an accuracy of 99.2% compared to the target price. Un-freaking-believeable. I had at the time (back when the reader brought this chart to my attention) that I'd sworn off FX but I would have loved to have made this trade. Just stunning.

Deja Vu Deja Vu

By -

Let me start by saying that today was the best trading day of my life.

It's insane, because two days ago (Monday), that was the best trading day of my life (until today). And then we all know what happened yesterday. Let's not go there again. I had nightmares about nuclear holocaust last night. Swear to God. I only have such nightmares when I've had a really awful day. And, yep, there they were, rewound and ready to play.

I was still really rattled this morning, but as I said, I was ready to "suit up" and get back into things.

Tonight's post is going to be short. I am so behind in everything. Even the simple pleasure of reading newspapers – – I've only read the news through Monday, for God's sake. Three days worth of the Journal and Times are staring at me. Not to mention the eight billion other things I've got to do (or want to do).

But my general theme is this…………and take it as you want……….take it as a contrary signal; take it as the sign the bottom has been solidly reached; take it as a sign I'm letting today's profits go to my head. But here it is: after looking at my positions, I have never been more optimistic about the profits ahead of me. I have never been more sure that my charts are going to collapse. And I've never been more comfortable holding onto my positions so that my big gains get positive gigantic.

There, I said it. History will make me a fool or a hero (to myself, anyway). We'll see.

So here's a smattering of charts. Just a few favorites. It'll be interesting to come back to this post in the weeks and months ahead and click on the Original/Present tab to see what happened after today.

As for the title of today's post – I simply think it's funny that last week, we went down (Monday), Up HUGE (Tuesday), and then down (Wednesday). This week is a virtual carbon copy.

I've gotta go clean the kitchen. Honest. Good night.