Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Exhausted?

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It seems the bad economy and battered markets are all anyone is talking about, which in itself is probably a (very short term) bullish signal. In a market like this, I'd never try to ride those little waves up. I'd rather just update my stops and stay put.

Looking at the IWM over the past 60 days, it's been making a push toward that next Fibonacci level down, but visually it doesn't seem to quite have the "oomph"  to crack through. I think it's more likely we get another little leg up before we get our pitching arm tuned up for that throw.

I have no equity index positions at all right now. What would entice me would be a climb toward that 66.75 level on the IWM. I think that's the current line in the sand between the bulls and the bears. A relief rally toward that level would drop the risk enough for me to feel comfortable. 

For the moment, my bearish plays are heavily weighted in oil- and gold-land. I'll be in back-to-back meetings today, so I won't be in the comments section, but good luck, and I'll see you at some point after the close (perhaps on the late side).

Something So Right

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I am reminded this morning of Paul Simon's lyrics……

When something goes wrong
I'm the first to admit it
I'm the first to admit it
And the last one to know

When something goes right
Well its likely to lose me, mm
Its apt to confuse me
Its such an unusual sight
Oh, I cant, I cant get used to something so right
Something so right

Everything is going my way. I've got over 80 equity positions, most of them in oil and gold, and those are going fantastic. I had no index positions, but when the market briefly bounced higher this morning (actually into the green), I bought a huge block of Russell 2000 puts.

Thus, I am skeptical and in a defensive posture, since the stars rarely line up quite this well.

For the moment, I'm going to take my profits on my Russell puts. I am thrilled with how my commodity-oriented puts look, however, and intend to hold on to them for what I hope are huge forthcoming gains.