Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Demi-Wimp

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We had a really nice drop so far down – – down over 160 on the Dow at one point – – and I'm bagging my profits on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. My oil and precious metal puts are doing great. So – – same old story, everyone – – I'm hanging on to my zillion small equity puts (which you can identify on the right side now!) and taking profits on the equity puts.

The Dow is getting close to 12,000, and that could represent some pretty meaningful support. We've had a number of bounces at that area, it's a psychologically important area, and it's a Fib resistance level. The only exception we had was the mini-panic around January 22nd. It would take some Big New Information to give us the strength to push it down more in the short-term.

China is interesting. You can see the horizontal line that used to be support is now very substantial resistance. It is still safely within its channel, but a break beneath that lower support line would spell further weakness.

I'm getting more aggressive with my gold shorts. I like how gold and oil are softening up today.

If I'm wrong about the indexes, and they continue to plunge, I'm going to have left plenty of cash on the table. The indexes are a mixed bag. Some of them seem to be nearing short-term bottoms. And others, like the MidCap, seem to have plenty of room left to fall.

The Arc

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I'm sorry, but today's post is going to be a bit bore-i-fic. Had we closed down, say, 100 points, I'd have more to say, but with a close of only 7 points off the Dow, it's clear we are still in the Price Range Purgatory that has become so maddening.

For the Russell 2000, which was rather weak today when compared to other major indexes, at least we're starting to "arc down." It's almost uncanny, since I am able to draw an oval that neatly matches the low prices that are being hammered out. It's slow, it's steady, and it's getting kind of tedious.

So we may be, for the zillionth time, having to brace ourselves for another bounce to the upper end of the range. The only big event this week (which is planned, anyway) is the jobs report on Friday morning before the open. Of course, the Obama/Clinton results late Tuesday night will be the big political news, but I'm not sure how much that would affect the markets. After all, it's pretty obvious that, barring a terrorist attack on the U.S., one of these (probably Obama) is going to be our new President, and taxes across the board – including, notably, capital gains – are going to go way higher.

Looking at the DIA's doji pattern – – the first I've seen on the DIA in quite some time – – strengthens the idea of a bounce tomorrow. Bummer. I was really looking forward to things getting mushy again!

 The bottom line is that my portfolios profits went up huge today, and then sank back down to where they started. A total waste of a market day. So there's really nothing more to say at this point, since I'm exactly where I was at this weekend in both my thinking and my portfolio value. I'll see you tomorrow morning, when perhaps there will be more to discuss.