I wish I was writing this with the insights, articles, and suggestions from the hundreds and hundreds of comments posted over the past few days, but I would rather get this post done first than make everyone wait until God-knows-when. The rich content that exists here on Slope from the users is marvelous for all readers, myself included, and I am so grateful for the participation level that so many people show here. Thank you!
I occasionally try to post "evidence" that I'm not a permabear (which, if true, would mean I'm a non-thinking individual). On Tuesday, I wrote this non-equivocal post shouting that buying gold, energy, and the NASDAQ were the things to do. I was right, but the intestinal fortitude required to hold on to those positions from Tuesday afternoon (when I said it) until the end of the week is something most do not possess (I certainly do not; I got "blown out" of my NASDAQ long positions a couple of times until, finally, the thing soared on Thursday afternoon).
Having said that, my brief flirtation with bullishness has come and gone. Sadly, a lot of people have be spooked into the bullish camp. Let me say, without any lack of clarity, what I believe:
- I am convinced, now more than ever, that we are in the throes of a bear market which is far from over, and that the resumption of the fall is very close, if not imminent;
- The United States will never regain the stature and strength it once knew in the world, based on the actions of an administration which, at best, has misguided intentions, and at worst, is involved in a conspiracy upon which I will not even conjecture;
- There is going to be sweeping financial ruin felt by many folks who simply don't know what they are doing.
Perhaps I am overly cautious about my views (the above notwithstanding) in order to not be branded a wearer of tin-foil hats. I've seen the breathless videos on some popular financial bloggers agonizing over the ruin of our once-great land. I'm just not the conspiracy type. I've consistently viewed those who make it their life's work trying to find the "bad guy" behind JFK's death or the "loose change" 9/11 conspiracy as bored and unhinged. This blog, after all, is about making money based on chart analysis. It's not a political blog. But the extraordinary nature of what is happening compels me to say something, even if it's just a prognostication.
If may seem pathetically naive, but for God's sake, at least take a few minutes to write your Congressional representative and your Senator.. This nation is supposed to be a democracy. I'm willing to invest a few minutes of my time, even if it means nothing, to at least be a doer and not just a complainer. If you have other effective means to get an opinion heard, please say so in the comments section and provide links.
Bulls can't seem to deal with life unless stocks are going up. Bulls are whiners, and no welfare recipient can hold a candle to the bulls. I've been looking at the kind of chatter from bulls out there, and it's all the same: "rig the game so that we are guaranteed to win." Wimps.
I was glancing around other blogs and found this post from someone who supposedly is a professional analyst with something called Capital Investment News (I'm pretty sure I know who the guy is, and he apparently wrote an article on September 1st suggesting that July 15th was the bottom for financial stocks; errr, he was wrong). Anyway, this is example number 8,323 that bulls can't even manage the simplest rules of writing (I've boldfaced each error that I saw).
I believe their will be a slight pull back as this plan is finalized. I
will be holding my stock. THings are happening so fast that I don't
want to miss the upswing. I do believ a permanant ban on shorts needs
to be enacted. Look at stocks since the ban they have started to grow
once again. Congress and the sec needs to realize that if an american
has a 401k they are the losers when you allow the shorts to manipulate
the stock price lower. The short sellers say it keeps the finacial
system honest, thats a bunch of bull. The hedge funds make a killing on
shorting companies because of the rumors it spreads and its the false
rumors that have been recking havoc. There is no ligintmate reason for
shorting. If you believe in a company buy their stock if you don't
don't buy them. I'm tired of watching my 40k get depleted by the short
sellers manipulating a stock price.
Jesus H. Christ, you must be stupid! Setting aside the utterly fallacious nature of your pontifications, didn't you learn the evils of run-on sentences when you were in grade school? But I digress……
On Thursday, the interest rate that the market was demanding to put their money in a safe place was 0.01%. That's one. One hundreth. Of a single. Percent.
In the past, I have pointed out specific charts of securities that I believed were especially attractive. But I'm not going to do that now, and I might not do that for a while to come. The reason is that, at this point, my disposition is to Short Everything That Has a Ticker Symbol. The charts I am looking at are so jumping-up-and-down obvious as shorts, that it's almost not worth bothering to point out individual issues. Not to say that this is an ideal market for shorting. The $VIX is still quite high and those running the game keep changing the rules of the game. Who is to say short-selling isnt' made outright illegal, as the bulls desire? Who is to say that put options aren't banned?
Anyway, the Chinese market looks ripe for another plunge. I'm going to be buying FXP this week.
There might be a little upside left for oil and gas, but this graph is simply bear-rific.
The $INDU made a 1,000 point reversal late last week. The pink rectangle shown below right is my new best friend.
Notice a couple of thing about the QQQQs: first, take heed of the important trendline that was busted earlier this month and has been mostly retraced; second, notice that, in spite of no small amount of excitement on Friday, the volume was by far the lower of the entire week!
The Russell 2000 was especially strong on Friday, and it went from pushing the low levels of its Bollinger to its high in almost no time.
I consider the S&P 500 perhaps the most compelling of all. I've tinted a crucially important resistance level.
And, love of my life, the $UTIL, is enough to make a bear weep tears of joy.
Lastly, another juicy bearish graph is the $XAU. As with oil, perhaps there is a skosh of upside left, but the potential for downside is far greater.
So that's it for me. I have gone from Bear to SuperBear. And I feel like I'm the last bear standing. Even Tony Caldaro has jumped ship, which I find profoundly disappointing. But I am pretty comfortable about what's coming.
