I am dying to read the comments, but I keep getting distracted by other stuff that needs doin'….
Just for fun, I decided to calculate the differences between the peaks and valleys of the S&P since the bear market (yes, we're in a bear market…..) began last fall. It's an interesting data set:
| Date of Turn |
Value (Peak=high/Nadir=low) |
Days since Prior Turn |
Change since Prior Turn |
| 10/11/2007 | 1576.09 | n/a | n/a |
| 1/23/2008 | 1270.05 | 104 | (19.4%) |
| 5/19/2008 | 1440.24 | 117 | 13.4% |
| 7/15/2008 | 1200.44 | 57 | (16.7%) |
| 8/11/2008 | 1313.15 | 27 | 9.4% |
| 9/18/2008 | 1133.50 | 38 | (13.7%) |
| 9/19/2008 | 1265.12 | 1 | 11.6% |
Of course, my conjecture that we've "peaked" in merely one day will be considered outlandish to, oh, just about everyone. But that's how we roll here on Slope. I would point out, however, that the % change from Thursday afternoon until Friday afternoon was comparable to the prior gains; indeed, it was quite a bit higher than the prior gain which took 27 days.
The GLOBEX opened recently………so far, so good. Sunday's activity (so far; it's not even been an hour) is highlighted in red.
