SPY vs. VIX

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I think I'm pretty "blogged out" for now, this being my eighth post for the day. My final post last night garnered about 1,000 comments, so I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar in the morning.

Just for fun, I was curious to see in ProphetCharts what a chart of the SPY versus the $VIX yielded. This is an interesting ratio, particularly since the VIX nearly reached the triple digits a year ago and now is almost back in the teens. Here's the chart:

1008-spyVIX

That red line pretty much sums up why I think the notion of a new bull market is misguided (I would normally describe it as clinically insane, but I'm trying to temper myself). The past year – – and by a lot of measures, this countertrend rally isn't 7 months old, but is 12 months old (take a look at GS to see what I mean) – – – has been nothing more than a recovery rally, fueled by government debt.

Today's very whippy tape shows the struggle continues. As I said in my post last night (which, if you didn't read it, please do), I grudgingly accept the possibility of an S&P as high as 1120, and, for the most part, I continue to wait and watch, with almost all my buying power sitting in cash.

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