We stopped just shy of a new high on SPX on Thursday, but that was
no surprise. As soon as we reached 1140 and most of the other indices
made new highs, a new high on SPX looked almost certain.

What we are waiting for is the push to the next interim top to be completed, and that doesn't look at all far away now.

As I suggested it might before the open yesterday, ES hit the bottom
trendline of the rising channel yesterday and bounced off it, though
not before poking a pinocchio nose through the trendline:

Much to my surprise EURUSD finally reached the top trendline of the
declining channel, and punched right through it. I had a close look at
it and have identified a potential new rising channel that looks
tradeable:

After having a very good look again at USD this morning I see that I
have been relying too much on EURUSD as a proxy for USD. The USD
(DXM0/June) rising channel is still very much unbroken and looking at
the confirmed and still resolving H&S pattern within that channel,
a hit of the bottom of the USD channel soon looks extremely likely from
here. DXM0 looks likely to hit the bottom of the rising channel
somewhere between 79.5 and 79.6, depending on how long it takes to get
there. I've marked the previous channel touches and their close
proximity to the equities interim tops and bottoms of recent months:

This could well push oil up a bit further, though there really isn't
much room left in oil's rising wedge, which will very likely break down
and start playing out in the next few days. A new high on oil looks
unlikely from here, and a fall back into the early 70s after the next
interim top is made is very much on the cards:

Now there is a lot of talk from discouraged bears at the moment that we
are breaking through equities resistance so hard that we will melt
upwards into the 1200s without a significant correction first. I think
that a move into the 1200s is very much on the cards, and we will most
likely see that in the next few months unless the SPX main rising
channel is broken on the next retracement. However we have very solid
resistance just above at the 1160 level, and while I wouldn't be
surprised to see us peak this time a little higher than that, I would
be very surprised to see that broken with conviction without a
significant retracement first. I have marked the SPX main channel and
the key support and resistance levels on this SPX daily chart:

That isn't the only strong resistance just above us here though.
mmTesla showed me a very interesting long term chart the other day that
I hope he won't mind me reposting it for everyone to see here:

I'm expecting to see the interim top put in today or Monday, and to
see a very significant decline after that. It is worth noting that
current pain on SPY is 111, and next week is opex week. After the
interim top is in, any bears still left standing after this amazing
wave up should then have a very pleasant rest of the month shorting the
correction.

However this will only be a top of real significance if the bottom
trendline of the main SPX rising channel, currently at 1080 and rising,
is broken on the way down. Unless that is broken, this retracement will
just be a short scalp opportunity and dip-buying long setup.