Let me start by saying how pleased I am that my conjecture yesterday about the market's near-term direction has been correct so far. As a reminder, here was my prediction (drawn in green)…….
…..and here's what we've seen since then………………
Ahem. Pretty stunning, huh? How did I do it? With the KnightVision system, which I'm selling immediately for the low, low price of $49 per day! Operators are standing by! 1-800-TIM-RULZ
No, that's not it. My method was simple enough. I look at 5,000 charts every stinking week. I've been doing this for twenty years. Look at enough charts, and you get good at it after a while. I have looked at literally hundreds of thousands (God help me…………) of charts in my trading lifetime. So my brain is full of this crap.
Now, listen, I've made plenty of "bold predictions" which were worth less than Lloyd Blankfein's good name. I declared in October, I think it was, that the S&P had topped out. Errr – -that wasn't the case. So as I'm standing here beating my chest about my oh-so-brilliant prediction, I do so with the knowledge that I've had lots of lame-o attempts at divining the market's next moves in the past.
The difference this time is that I was really, really confident of what was going to happen, just like I was back in mid-January when I stared at my 30" Apple monitor and felt a glow of assurance about what was coming next. It is truly gratifying to see things pan out so far. If the entire pattern completes, you'll have to forgive me if I put these charts up at least a few dozen more times in order to cluck about it.
There was a bit more to it, though. I mentioned getting a completely snarky email last week – – on the 23rd – – which, by the way, marked the exact day of the highest close on the Dow. On top of that – – and this actually had much more weight – – a stunning number of Slopers yesterday seemed to finally throw in the bear towel. I don't think I'd ever seen so many people saying – in their own words – "I give up. I'm sick of losing money. I'm joining the bull camp and am just going to buy all the dips."
They didn't say it to be funny or sarcastic; they were serious. And when Slopers………..the bears' bears ………surrender, well, things are bound to get interesting. So I was shorting like crazy during yesterday's ridiculous rally.
I have survived the past seven months by being very "light", committing only 30% to 50% of my cash to positions, and by avoiding options and leverage. It's been a losing stretch of time, but only a single digit percentage loss, and something from which I feel I can handily recover. No one likes a loss, but in the face of a 25% explosion on the Russell 2000 over the past seven months, I actually feel OK about it.
My point is that I am finally comfortable being 100% committed. Further, if things continue to break my way, I am comfortable pushing into leveraged territory. As a trader, I strive to lose money slowly and make money quickly. I have excelled at losing money (!) slowly over these months, but I believe things are setting us for some serious money-making. At least that's what I hope!
Anyway, it's been a good week, and I'm going to rest. I'm still stuck in France time, and getting up at 3:30 each morning is getting kind of old. Hopefully this weekend I can shake off this jet lag and resume a more human schedule. Have a good weekend.
