Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Comparing 1987 Market Crash To Today’s Market (By Ryan Mallory)

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Ryanm (Note: This post is a bit of a 'piggy-back' off of Biffermas' post in regards to the '87 market crash)

There was a number of creative titles I could have given this article like "Markets Gone Wild", "Pay-Day Some-Day" among others, but I figured I'd be a little bit more to the point – and that's what I did. Don't think for a second that history can't repeat itself, because it can and it does so all the time. In fact that is one of the tenants of technical analysis, that you use past market behaviors to predict future trading opportunities. And as a chartist, I couldn't help but notice the grave similarities to the market of today to that of 1987.

After taking a dip in early 1987, what is interesting is the market drove right back up, at a similar angle to that of today's rally until that fateful day in 1987 when the market, overnight, dropped 21%. That would be like waking up in the morning and seeing the futures down 254 points on the S&P to 956. From peak to bottom the S&P dropped 36% in less than 2 months, and in less than a week it dropped 29% – and this, my friends, was after an incredible market rally preceding it.

Here's a Look at Today's Market.

Pretty crazy, eh???? I thought so.

Now for those of you, that need me to "dumb-down" what I just said above into layman's terms or you're just one of those Euphoric-Bulls who just doesn't comprehend what I am saying, I point you to Tommy Boy trying to explain what happens when you buy "the other guy's break pads" and his disastrous attempt to sell his product. His philosophy and reasoning for buying his breakpads is just as absurd as all of the bulltards out there that can't fathom how this market could ever go down again. Or, if you'd like, just use the video to understand what happens to markets that run out of control and what there eventual fate looks like!

I present to you – the modern day Bulltard - fat, unaware, and wears a clip-on tie!

Originally Posted By Ryan Mallory on his blog at SharePlanner.com

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Rising Channels on ES, Gold and Oil

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Just a quick post with three rising channels that I have been looking at over the last day that people may find useful.

The most tentative is the new rising channel on ES for this current subwave up. This is tentative until we see another peak as this may not be a channel at all, and could be something else such as a rising wedge. Still, ES has been channeling well, and this looks good on the basis of the information available at the moment.

The IHS, which I posted before the open at slope yesterday, had a target of 1207 which has already played out to target so that pattern won't take us to the upper channel trendline:

100415_ES_60min_New_Channel
I also have a rising channel on gold, and the lower trendline looks solid. The upper trendline looks pretty good too but there is a chance that we could see a breakthrough to the parallel red trendline above. If there is a break up then that should be the target:

100415_Gold_Daily_Rising_Channel

The last rising channel is on oil, and it looks solid. The next target is the upper channel trendline:

100415_Oil_Daily_Rising_Channel
I'm still on vacation and will be missing most of the trading day on Thursday so I'll check in later on in the session. Good luck trading everyone!

By the way, Leisa asked me for a Haiku yesterday while chatting about the UK man recently convicted of being overly amorous towards a donkey and a horse and these were the result. Enjoy!

Limerick

 

There was an old man whose desire
Was a stable romance to acquire
But the donkey and horse
took legal recourse
So the neighs meant the outcome was dire.

 

Haiku

Horses and donkeys
can be patient to a fault
But neigh still means nay

Chart on Ford (F) by Mike Paulenoff

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Today’s Yesterday's strength in Ford (F) has hurdled key near-term resistance at 12.95, which triggered additional buying (short covering too?) that has propelled the stock to an intraday high at 13.30 so far. To the extent that F can hold and extend its early gains, my next immediate target is 13.45/55. However, if in fact the April 8 low represented the end of a correction off of the March 18 high at 14.54, then the current upmove also represents the start of a new upleg that should revisit the March high on the way to 15.25/50 thereafter. Only a decline that breaks back beneath 12.95 on a sustained basis will compromise my current outlook.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

The Born Louvre

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Bonjour again from the 16th district of Paris for one of my all-text missives.

It seems my absence from the land of the free and home of the bailout hasn't done any magic for the markets, as they have simply lurched higher into Never-Never-Was-a-Problem Land. My kind host here, Royale with Cheese, has been sending me pained text messages about the markets.

I actually viewed the jolt higher with a certain sense of relief, since the big ETFs all perfectly touched the resistance lines on Wednesday. I increased my short SPY position substantially near the close. The handful of longs I've got – such as CROX – have helped salve the pain to some degree.

I also view with some curiousity how the financials exploded higher Wednesday (such as FAS) whereas the real estate ETFs acted as if there were no rally at all. Strange.

Paris is a beautiful city. It is marvelously old. It is a delightful thing to stroll street after street and see hardly any franchise stores or familiar brand names. Oh, there's been a Subway here and there, but by and large what one sees actually seems to have some soul to it.

I'm going to be fully back in the Slope saddle on Monday morning. I'm going to have a statue made of Leisa in the Slope Pantheon for adopting my blog-child this week. Thank you, also, to both contributors and commenters alike for keeping things sailing this week. Au revoir for now!