Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Advice from my father (by Nathaniel Goodwin)
I spent the weekend at my mom’s house and grabbed some old boxes of stuff to take back with me. While going through some of the boxes, I discovered an old picture of my mom and dad on their wedding day. They met at a local swim club and it was love at first sight according to my mom. I think my old man tried to cram as much of his knowledge into my brain before he left my mom and I, he was always full of advice and gin.
He used to tell me two things about investing. One was that traders had no balls; you need to buy and hold, and the other was to never fool around with penny stocks. He was a professional life guard, womanizer and gambler who never traded or invested in anything to my knowledge so you can wipe your ass with that advice.
Over the past few months I've been thinking about his words of wisdom or lack thereof, and actually bought a few penny stocks with the intent on holding. Now I'm talking about a very small amount of my capital since fooling around with penny stocks blow up an account rather quickly. A few hundred shares here or there is all I'm willing to risk, and I'm not really worried about looking at them too often since I'm "buying and holding."
One of my favorites is CPE. I bought a small amount at $1.40, and sold half around $4.00 letting the rest of it ride. The chart is looking a bit ridiculous now, but I still don't see a good reason to sell the rest of it yet.
Another one I like is the thinly traded GMET, small amount at $0.95. This one might be another good longer term investment. I have a bunch of oil and gas laggards on my radar, but again I'm not trying to get too fancy with my trading on these. A couple hundred shares buy and forget for the time being, these kinds of stocks can wipe me out if I invest/trade too much.
A year ago I had a few thousand GGP stocks at $0.68 with the intent on "buying and holding" even though I was well aware that they would most likely go through bankruptcy. My plan was to hold throughout and let it ride. Well I panicked and sold at $1.10 right before they filed. Not a bad trade, but I let my emotions get the best of me and didn't follow my plan. Sometimes when I'm eating my ramen noodles in the dark, I just want to kick myself for not following through with my plan.
A Technical Tell? (by Biffermas)
Just a quick comment cleaner here. There is much talk around these parts about broken bearish technical patterns, with last summer's failed head and shoulders top being a prime example. At a minimum, many discount the bearish signals they receive after a protracted bull run (who can blame them?). Take a look at this chart and guess what happens next. A long-term trendline was broken to the downside, and the hot price action subsequently kissed the underside gingerly… Too textbook? Too good to be true?
Once you've guessed, click here to see what happened next.
Gold – Big Picture Perspective
Back in 2006 (and well before), the blogger was touting a simple
message of perspective with regard to gold. This perspective is
rooted in the idea of something of monetary value in a world so
obviously off the charts when it comes to sound stewardship of monetary
systems.
Here is an updated yearly chart of gold dating back to
the inflationary hysterics that were in play when I was a very young
man. All throughout the secular bull market we currently enjoy, we who
understand value have had to endure hatchet jobs in the media regarding
the ancient relic:
"You can't
eat gold!" as they say.
Yes, I know; why would anyone want
to eat a sound anchor to
monetary value in a (mostly) civilized world that still operates on a
currency basis? Why would anyone want to eat a heavy metal that will become the surrogate for
human monetary and trade interaction including in the things that we can eat; in the things that we do
need to survive and prosper? Gold only has all those centuries as a
civilized medium of exchange to back it up.
"A deflationary price spiral will bring gold
down and end the mania in the yellow metal!" they say.
Oh
really? Well, you have been saying that for the majority of those
green yearly candles on the right side of the chart. Your continued
doubt assures that you will finally be buying a candle well higher than
the current one. If we get a deflation, it will be an interim event and
guess what? Gold's real price is going to rise during said event, even
if its nominal price declines temporarily. Those phases are what smart
investors call 'investment opportunity'.
"But, but, but…"
No 'buts'
about it, forget your assumptions and gain some perspective.
Straighten Out the Squiggles (by Biffermas)
This concept is certainly nothing new or innovative, but for a lazy approach to investing it's hard to beat. Using two exponential moving averages (13 and 34 EMA) and merely flipping ones position at the crossovers we see the vast majority of broad gains captured regardless of direction.
At a minimum it's a great way to reduce your brokerage fees!
