Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

For Whom the Blog Tolls

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Being an American writer stranded indefinitely in Paris – – due, strangely enough, to volcanic activity – – brings to mind visions of Hemingway, although without the talent or succession of divorces to complete the picture. The cold fact of the matter is that Iceland is going to keep me bound inside France until it decides otherwise, so – – with the infinite generosity of ETF Corner's Royale with Cheese, I remain here. I have my family, my computer, and an Internet connection, so I'm content.

My shot-in-the-dark guess is that we might see a partial recovery of Friday's loss early in the week. I'd like that, since it would permit me to beef up the short positions that I lightened on Friday. A kick back to 1200 on the S&P sounds about right.

I'm cobbling together a semblance of my normal blogging tools (although you'll see some obvious differences, such as the obnoxious you-don't-have-a-key logo on my graphics). The $INDU just about perfectly tagged its 61.8% level.

0417-indu

Whereas the Transports, even stronger, hit their 78.6% level.

Tran

I'm not sure what "event" – – Google, Goldman, or the volcano – – is going to finally be of aid to the bears, but I sense that it's finally here. Europe is losing $200 million in revenue every single day in transporation revenue alone, and a multi-week outage of transporation would be really damaging to business here. So I say – – burn, baby, burn!

Stun Gun Jones to the Rescue (by Nathaniel Goodwin)

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Last night I was chatting a bit with fellow sloper Marketsniper. I told him that "Stun Gun" Jones had been freaking me out lately; always yelling out numbers, throwing rocks at my window and telling me to "Pay attention!" 


Marketsniper suggested I go get him a short dog and we hash it out on the curb. So I changed out of my pajamas, grabbed a case of Schlitz the Colonel had in the fridge and went looking for Stun Gun.

We worked and drank throughout the night; he was rambling off numbers like a madman using this weird chart with all these boxes and numbers on it. He told me to add some stuff to the chart I made a couple weeks ago and to watch for hidden resistance and support levels.


Right now I’m back in my pajamas drinking another Schlitz out of a champagne glass eating a ham sandwich.


SPX 

(If it's hard to see the chart, hit Ctrl + to make it bigger)
 

I'm really not sure if some sort of top is in, but I will add shorts on strength from here with stops hidden above the high. If we break the high I’ll start watching the 1220 level.

A Trading Idea To Watch (from facesincabs)

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Facesincabs

In
thinking through the events of Wednesday to Friday this past trading week, I
basically see the Goldman Sachs civil suit by the SEC and Friday’s immediate
response by the markets as a “shock event”. 
It is my experience as a trader that market shocks like this can present
great opportunities for traders, because a shock event can signal a change in
the markets.

Alan
Farley (in his book: The Master Swing Trader) has defined a trade set up
related to market shock events, which I think is very useful here.  It is called a “Power Spike.  After Friday’s close, I am beginning to see
this set up all over the charting landscape on a daily time frame (but not on a
weekly chart yet) and in several sectors.

 

Power Spike (a bi-directional set up) –
http://www.hardrightedge.com/tour/spike.htm

 A definition, specific guidelines, and chart examples are
provided on Farley’s web site, so I will not repeat them here.  However, learning the characteristics of this
set up (and making the trade idea your own) is well worth your time.

S&P 500 ($SPX) – http://tinyurl.com/y5nkmbd (a direct link
to my stock chart)

$SPX

 

Financials (XLF)http://tinyurl.com/yydzzln (a direct link
to my stock chart)

Xlf_041710

 

Financials
were one of the weaker areas in the market on Friday.  I would note that real estate (IYR) was also
relatively weak.

 

 

With
the 5th wave extension of this March 2009 rally, I see a growing
opportunity with this specific trade set up over the next few weeks because the
shock event on Friday is now combined with many reversal-based candlestick
patterns on the index charts (e.g., evening star doji, bearish engulfing, and
dark cloud cover to name a few).  So keep
an eye out for the next market ripple in the big pond called the U.S.
economy.  The next shock event is probably
not too far away.


The Date is Set!

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Slopefest is Happening! Yes, after all this time, it's your opportunity to meet face-to-face with your favorite fellow Slopers. We'll be gathering for a fun, lively dinner at the Sugarcane Lounge at the Venetian (Las Vegas) on the evening of Monday, May 10th from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. This coincides with the Money Show, which runs from May 10-13.

The cost to attend SlopeFest is $195 $175 per person, which is to cover food, drinks, and other surprises. You can sign up here to reserve your spot today.

0406-sugarcane