14 years ago – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

You ‘Beta’ be Going Down Son – by Bkudla

By Tim Knight - 14 years ago (18, Apr 2010 5:54:18 PM)

One of my favorite short plays is my “Icarus” strategy. I look for stocks that filter at the top in
Beta, percent to 200 day MA, and one month price gains. I then watchlist the top 15 names for the
week (I can’t manage more than that, and I might only pick 3 or four
trades). I wait for the momentum to wane
before I enter the trade. I also
determine if I am going to straight short them, Execute a put, or a credit call
spread. My stop is its recent high.

Here are my top 15 to watch for consideration¹:

RDN Radian 17.89

ETM Entercom 14.91

LCUT Lifetime
Brands 13.98

OLP One Liberty Properties 17.87

BONT Bon
Ton Stores 16.71

CKEC Carmike
Cinema’s 17.36

MTG Mgic
Investments 12.60

FNSR Finisar
Corp 16.76

PEI Pennsylvania
REIT 14.25

CROX CROC’s 10.54

LPX Louisiana Pacific 11.07

DIN DinEquity 43.69

GBX Greenbrier
Companies 16.59

TRW TRW 33.36

ATPG ATPG
Oil and Gas 22.73

^{1(Editor's note: I created a FINVIZ screen for you here.)}

GBX is my favorite, I am also already short LULU (made my
filter but did not include on the list) and added to it on Thursday.

These are not necessarily market calls, but simply physics.
Please define your profit exit (learned the hard way for me) as these are high
beta stocks.

Feedback is always appreciated, and I will post any of these
I enter next week. Enjoy.

Mariner Energy Victory + EuroTim – Being Renovated

By Tim Knight - 14 years ago (18, Apr 2010 11:07:41 AM)

During my full-bore absence last week, I wasn't able to crow a bit about Mariner Energy (symbol ME), one of my long suggestions. It had a 41% pop in one day, which for me was a real breath of fresh air. It was a takeover, so this was obviously a fair bit of dumb luck, but the purchase was based simply on technical reasons – – – the very clean breakout above $16.50 in the days prior. This one worked out nicely, and it helped infuse some more it's-good-to-buy-stocks-too-cells into my body.

EuroTim – Being Renovated

Fractals and Our Fates II (George Rahal)

By Tim Knight - 14 years ago (18, Apr 2010 8:02:29 AM)

Editor's (Leisa) note: This submission was originally posted here, and it was forwarded to Tim. Hope you find it interesting. There will be no sector report from me this week due to a computer change over.

—————————–

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Fractals
and Our Fates II

There are three charts in this post. The 1987 crash on weekly-bars, the
February 2007 drop on 2-day bars, and the most recent weeks in 30-minute
bars, respectively. The patterns exhibit nearly identical properties. I
have only notated the properties in the first chart but have included
the drawings in all three. You will first notice a 3-wave move, followed
by a consolidation phase of X length(time), boxed in teal. Then,
another three wave move of equal length followed by an extremely sharp
drop in prices. Support is found around the midpoint of wave 3 of the
move prior to the consolidation.

The
last two charts are of SPXEW instead of SPX because they exhibit the
properties clearer. The equivalent support level on SPX is 1160. If the
scrip follows, there will be a double bottom around this area, followed
by a quick recovery to new highs.

Posted by
George

at
11:09 AM

Consolidation Time! (by Fujisan)

By Fujisan - 14 years ago (18, Apr 2010 3:48:20 AM)

It looks like the market finally started a correction on Friday, which was a major relief for both bulls and bears. I'm happy that I can go short now and I have some bearish charts to share this week.

OPX Roadmap

Here is the road map that I laid out last Monday in the comment section, which worked out quite nicely. I used the January OPX chart as my road map for Apr OPX week.

Now, some of you asked me — what will happen next week? Does this pattern hold?

My take on this is yes, it will. It should bounce back up early next week, and then resume to the downside later on the week.

(My TOS chart is not working at the moment (is TOS down again?) and I won't be able to show you my ES hourly chart, but I see a H&S pattern formation).

I also mentioned that I'm expecting 4~8% correction for the coming 2 weeks, and then resume to the upside in early May. My market view will not be changed unless the selloff accelerates with much higher volume.

Trading GS

GS made a big drop on Friday, and I'm expecting this selloff continues.

TM Daily Chart (for Comp Purpose)

This is what happened to Toyota back in January when they revealed the mechanical problems with Prius.

GS Daily

Here is the GS daily chart. $124 is my short term target.

Here is the GS weekly chart.

JPM Daily

FAS Daily

Financials were being hit pretty hard on Friday due to the GS scandal. $84.64 is my short term target. I would have a better target price once the retracement is complete.

IYR Daily

Assuming IYR is going to form a H&S pattern, my short term target is $47.61 (will adjust my target after the formation of RS).

DRN Daily (3x bull IYR)

Assuming DRN is forming H&S pattern, my short term target is $157 (will adjust my target after the formation of RS).

EUR/USD Pair

This currency pair is going through sideway consolidation and I have no sense ot direction until it breaks out of this rectangular pattern. It closed the Sunday gap on Friday.

SPX Daily

I drew a trendline in all three major indices and they all hold the the trendlines and the other three still hold the major support levels. COMP and RUT still look very strong.