Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Testing the 2007 High
The high on SPX yesterday was at 1573, just shy of the intraday 2007 high at 1576.09. I was saying to a friend yesterday morning that the ideal place for a high here, if we are going to see a high here, is at 1576 plus or minus 4, and we hit that yesterday, but ideally we would see the high tested and slightly exceeded. This is the last chance to see a reversal at an established resistance level, as above 1576.09 is blue sky territory.
On ES there were no RSI signals yesterday, but ES is within striking distance of channel resistance in the 1570.5 area, and that is a decent fit with a test of the 2007 high on SPX:
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Waiting for the Fat Lady to Sing
The rally from the Nov 2012 lows appears to be in wave 5, or i suspect it will be a 5 wave advance.
In Elliott Wave terms we call that an impulse wave, it looks virtually text book, although as its pushing higher, it still don’t look completed, I am currently working 2 ideas.
Idea 1
The market is about to push higher in a small 3rd wave of what we call a triangle “thrust”, so today should see more upside above 1581SPX, so some sort of “burst” to confirm this idea and negate Idea 2.
Holding above 1558SPX keeps the market bid, so no matter which idea, it is still bullish above that area, and short term aggressive traders can look to buy dips and use 1558SPX as the risk control point.
A potential target for the end of wave 5 is around the 1590-1600SPX, but its subject to wave structure and counting a 5 wave advance from the wave [e] point of the triangle (blue line).
Idea 2
This is the preferred idea and a potential ending diagonal (non Elliotticians call them bearish wedges).
Although this is limited to 1581SPX as above that area wave [v] would be longer than wave [iii] and that’s a rule violation for the pattern, so its actually quite simple, if a move above 1581SPX, it suggests Idea 1 and the triangle “thrust” option is working, failure to break above 1581SPX suggests the ending diagonal option.
Currently the market has not tipped its hand, but by the end of today’s close i am expecting to have some sort of edge to which idea is working.
No matter which idea as long as its above 1558SPX the market is still bid.
I wont bore you with the daily chart idea, as that is not important, whats important is the structure appears to be a 5 wave move from the Nov 2012 lows and i suspect a reversal is close, we simply need to let the market commit and confirm which short term idea is in play.
NetFlixSux
I am not one who suffers fools gladly.
If you’re really sharp, I’ll bend over backwards for you, particularly if you’re creating something for me. When I was building Prophet, it was my job description as founder and CEO was to do Anything You Need To Get Your Job Done. Whether that was getting you doughnuts, buying you Indian dinner, purchasing you new equipment or software – – my time and money was at your disposal.
The not-so-sharp among us I tend to avoid, but there are times (like, say, at the DMV) where I cannot escape. Over the past 24 hours, however, I have taken three stabs at getting NetFlix to function, and I’m batting 0.000 with these people.
I first tried Netflix in the late 1990s when they started, and I was delighted at the service. I stopped using them ages ago, though, but I decided – in spite of lacking the time to enjoy movies – to sign up for a subscription. The price of $7.99/month was close enough to free to not worry about it, and I’ve got a Tivo, so I would be able to stream straight to that device.
I signed up; it was easy; I got the activation code; it was easy; but then I tried to figure out how to specify what movie I wanted to watch………and everything stopped. I didn’t know what to do.
My first inclination in these situations is actually to blame myself for overlooking something obvious. So I looked. And I looked. And I referred to online help. And I looked some more. And I simply couldn’t figure out how to get a movie to play on the Tivo.
The Tivo itself didn’t have a search function or anything; if one navigates to the Netflix part of Tivo, it simply shows you whatever is in your instant viewing queue, and it was blank – – because there was no such queue I could find on the web site. I had thought I’d see some kind of drag & drop interface on the Netflix site, but no dice.
I really wish I could provide you with the recordings of the first and second conversations I had with the representatives, because once it became apparent to me that they didn’t know what they were talking about, I went straight off the rails. I don’t scream and get angry; you know me well enough to know I’m too sweet for that kind of thing. I simply get really, really incredulous. (I believe a direct quote was, late in the conversation, “How in the name of my Lord and personal savior Jesus H. Christ am I suppose to request a movie to watch on my Tivo if you have removed the capability to do so???”)
Because, you see, their explanation for not having a queue was……….that they removed it. For marketing reasons. As a test. And they wanted to see what people thought of their test. Well, I told them what I thought of their test.
I did try this afternoon, just one last time, to see if I could reach someone rational. I failed to do so. The unedited transcript, in its entirety, I provide for your viewing pleasure:
Tim
Hi there; ready?
Emotional Indicators
As traders we are told to check our emotions at the door and just trade what we see. The faster we conquer fear, greed, and all the other destructive emotions that befall our fragile human condition the better traders we will be. And normally I fully agree with that sentiment. However, there are the very rare instances where emotion is the best indicator above all other market signals.
I’d like to tell a personal story. Two years ago to the month I went to war with silver. I had been watching silver go up EVERY SINGLE DAY and it was driving me nuts. To make matters worse my neighbor at the time ran a precious metal business and was borderline unbearable as shiny things marched higher and higher. The concept of precious metals ever going down again was unfathomable. I nibbled short and got hit several times. Come the end of April 2011, I was absolutely FURIOUS with the silver market. Shorting silver now became personal on many levels. I remember very few specific trading days of my career but I vividly remember April 29th, 2011.
