Yesterday was the third day of a daily upper band ride and was of a stronger type where the daily 2sd (two standard deviations away from the middle band) upper band acted as support and the daily 3sd upper band acted as resistance. The 2sd upper band is currently at 2388 and the 3sd upper band is in the 2404 area, so a retest of the ATH on SPX is under that resistance today. Today’s low was at 2388 and the high so far is at 2398. Unless we see a break back under 2388 with some confidence we may well see that ATH retest today. SPX daily chart:
On the hourly chart I have a possible rising channel forming and the next obvious target would be rising channel support, currently in the 2365 area but rising fast. If we do see a break down with confidence today that trendline would be the obvious target. SPX 60min chart:
ES has backtested broken rising wedge support and this is a possible fail area. A full size possible 60min sell signal is now brewing. ES Jun 60min chart:
NQ is continuing to struggle hard in the 5550 area, which is a big trendline resistance level on the longer term chart. NQ could well be topping here. NQ Jun 60min chart:
TF is close to touching strong rising resistance, currently in the 1428 area. As with both SPX and NDX, RUT is testing a big long term resistance trendline here. A full size 60min sell signal is now brewing. TF Jun 60min chart:
This is a big long term resistance area on all of SPX, NDX and RUT. The middle of the current cycle high window was yesterday and triangle thrusts of the kind that we are seeing here on SPX and RUT are generally termination moves ending a wave sequence. The odds favor a high here, and the calendar favors it too, with the end of April and the start of May being the most densely populated date range of the year for significant highs. The odds favor the bears here and I’m watching for that high.