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Since I’m super-short right now (70 different positions and nearly 300% margined), I thought I’d put up a brief post to examine what the next important “break” level for the Russell 2000 would be. Specifically, we need to break about 1335, as highlighted here:
After the first day of trading of April, a relatively uneventful one for the equity markets in general, the most consequential market for me is 10-year yield, which continues to exhibit constant weakness that commenced immediately after the March 15th Fed rate hike, and currently is bearing down on a critical 5-month support level at 2.30%.
If 2.30% is violated and sustained, it will trigger potential for downside continuation that projects to 2.10% optimally, and possibly to 2.00% prior to the next upmove in the budding yield bull market off of the July 2016 historic low at 1.32%. The 10-year hit a high in mid-December, 2016 at 2.64%, and probed that level a second time into the March 15th, 2017 Fed meeting. (more…)
Yesterday’s knife fight resolved up and SPX closed the day at another test of the daily middle band from below. SPX gapped over the middle band at the open and looked as though a trend day was in store until SPX/ES hit declining resistance from the high. That broke up slightly on SPX and has been tested at the high on ES, but held so far. Bulls need to break above 2380 SPX / 2377 ES and bears need a close back under the daily middle band, currently at 2363. Whichever way this breaks may well determine direction for the next few days.
SPX 60min chart:
