Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Market Talk, Economy & Bond Market

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A premium excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 876

Market Talk

At this point, far into the broad market recovery rally with gold stocks so close to the primary target (HUI 500+/-) I want to make sure I am speaking clearly as a human, rather than mechanically as a TA or macro funda dork. That will probably shorten this report and possibly the next few reports to come, until something big happens.

Big? Well, a broad top and breakdown would be big. A Fed policy shift would be big. A significant US Dollar rally would be big (given it would be against a government that seems bent on devaluation), a precious metals upside blowout and reversal, a commodity failure, a precipitous decline in long-term Treasury yields, or a resumed rise in those yields. All big.

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WallyWorld Revisted

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Walmart. Sam Walton opened the first store in 1962 in Bentonville, Arkansas, and the company has done nothing but grow since. Despite that success, Walmart’s stock does not always go up.

With the uncertainty of the effect of tariffs placed on imports from China, in their earnings report of February 20, 2025 Walmart acknowledged that earnings for 2025 would be below expectations.

On 3Mar25 I did a post on Walmart reflecting that its chart looked vulnerable to downside risk.  As it turned out, it was a timely post, price dropping the next trading day and ending a month later at the year’s low.  In the daily chart below, the purple highlight on the left marks the date of that post.  Note where the Ichimoku Cloud is (green & red dotted horizontals).

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