Good morning, everyone. Welcome to a new week. Welcome to a new month. However, also welcome to the same unnerving lunatic asylum, which is our present-day state of affairs and a never-ending treadmill of an on-again/off-again war (or “excursion“, if you’re wearing a special helmet).
If you’re not losing your mind by now, then you’re just not paying attention.
Although you think the cynicism would be thick as Greek yogurt by now, the traders of the world gobbled up the latest canard about a deal. Well, not a deal as such. The only thing that’s been said definitely is that talks……….will start…………this afternoon. Big fuckin’ deal. But crude oil has collapsed regardless.
Over the past few trading days, the /ES has pushed higher, although it seems to have picked up the tendency to have cardiac arrest every couple of days. You can expect more of these soon.
The fact of the matter is that doe-eyed optimism aside, the 4-hour bar chart of the /ES is as vulnerable looking as ever, and the notion that a neurologically different twenty-five-year-old who saw his multi-billion fund blown out from under his feet is the foundation for a new bull market is clinically psychotic.
A vastly more appealing chart is the 4-four for the NASDAQ. This thing has me almost weeping with joy. All it has to do now is follow through, as God intends.
As I’m typing these words about half an hour before the open, the vast majority of the rally in the /NQ is already gone, and the semiconductor index is just plain down. It popped, just like everything else, but I suspect it’s slowing dawning on people the enormity of the multi-trillion-dollar wipeout that’s going to take place with AI, the biggest financial bubble in human history.
As politically manipulated as equity markets are, they have become an unreliable narrator of the truth. As much as I sneer at Bitcoin, it is a far more organic market than equities. It seems to me BTC has a much more lucid take on what’s going on than the S&P, and its “golly, gee, a peace deal!” rally was rapidly undone. In short, I think Bitcoin’s got it right.
That applies to the long-term as well, since Bitcoin seems like it’s ready to get as wiped out as a surfer who’s ready to surf a tsunami wave.
I am coming into this day lighter than I’ve been in months but will be judiciously amping up positions as I see appropriate.
