Welcome back from the, um, three-day weekend thing. I’m glad we can get back to normal life now and trade. And I don’t think I’ve ever cheered on green numbers so much before. As I’m typing this, equities are up pretty much 1.5% across the board, the crypto has had a very robust recovery ($BTC up almost 20% from where I bought it on Saturday morning). Here is the /ES with its ascent since trading re-opened on Sunday afternoon.
This is a real puzzle, though. On the bullish side of things:
- Cramer has finally thrown in the towel;
- David “contrarian” Hunter has thrown in the towel;
- Sentiment is as bearish as you can possibly imagine
And, most importantly, the potential for a really significant counter-trend bounces, such as those I’ve marked below, is definitely there:
But the cash market hasn’t even opened yet, and the market is ALREADY looking like it’s gasping and wheezing. One wonders if the modest basing pattern is going to fail, just like last time.
What I’d like to see if for equities to shake off this risk of faltering and actually achieve a breakout. Because even this permabear isn’t comfortable shorting much of anything anymore at these levels, and a genuinely meaty rally would make things a CINCH, as opposed to 5-star level difficult, like they are now.
Today will be very telling. Hell, the first hour will.
