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You know the old saying – if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s a donkey. Okay, maybe I got that one mixed up – but that’s the sort of rational thinking we’ve come to expect from the equities market for well over a year now. More specifically as equities crawl their way higher month over month implied volatility continues to range in ‘problem space’ territory.
It’s all over the news. The U.S. housing bubble, the stock market bubble, and now the crypto market bubble. In fact since the onset of the 21st century we have seemingly stumbled from one market bubble to the next.
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I have been perusing the financial MSM over the past few days and beyond all the usual hyperbole and guesswork as to what the Fed may or may not decide to do there is one thing they all share in common: A total lack of consideration or care as to the long term implications of an exploding Fed balance sheet and an inability or unwillingness to draw correlations to the massive jump in inflation that consumers in and outside of the U.S. are increasingly experiencing. So basically, business as usual!
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October is behind us and despite being infested with termites and cockroaches the house still appears to be standing. Historically speaking we ought to now be heading straight into the most productive earnings season of the year. Of course 2021 – like its preceding year – has not been a regular year. Nevertheless the stats are the stats, so let’s get on with it:
(more…)If you’re feeling a bit stumped right now by the current ramp higher you are not alone. In fact a lot of things in this market don’t make much sense to me at the moment. Which in turn led me to lower my exposure in equities weeks ago and that implicitly means I am not just talking my book.
