Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Downside Potential Here

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SPX is at a potentially significant inflection point here, with a setup for a possible sharp retracement. SPX has broken down from a short term rising wedge and formed a possible double top. A possible hourly RSI 14 sell signal is brewing and the obvious first downside target on SPX in the event of a significant reversal here would be channel support in the 2740 area. We are looking for a sharp retracement soon and it could well start here.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD: (more…)

Filling The Island Top Gap – Take Three

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We did our monthly free public Chart Chat yesterday and, if you missed that, you can see the recording posted on our June Free Webinars page.

ES/SPX has been forming a likely large bull flag over most of the last month, and the flag pattern is the unusual and very poorly named broadening formation, right angled and descending. I’m trying to think of a catchier name.

Be that as it may I like these patterns and, on ES overnight, that pattern has been starting to break up. The full target would be in the 2800-5 area, though we thinking we might see a retracement/backtest from the 2765-75 area, if the island top gap from the March high into 2752.021 can now finally be filled. Our expectation is that this gap should be filled today.

Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)

Testing Double Top Support

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Interesting setup on SPX here as the holiday week begins. SPX is now testing the larger double top support that I was looking at last week and has broken slightly below double top support at the open. From here there are only two high probability options.

The first option is that SPX continues down towards the double top target in the 2661.50 area. A sustained break below 2690 from here likely seals that for the bears. The second option here is that the double top fails and rejects at the break. That’s what I would call a Janus bull flag setup, and the target would be a full retest of the May high at 2742.24. A strong break back over weekly pivot on SPX at 2723.65 likely seals this for the bulls, though by that stage SPX would be most of the way back to 2742.24 of course. As a general rule I’d expect to see one or the other target reached this week.

Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD: (more…)

Mind The (Island Top) Gap

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We are starting our second Academy Trader Boot Camp tonight in a webinar an hour after the close. The feedback from the last one was very positive and if you’d like to see that then scroll down to the bottom of our Testimonials page to find those. If you’d like to take this very reasonably priced and high quality four week course on TA, risk management and trading methods, there are still places available and you can sign up for that here until the RTH close today.

I was concerned on Thursday that SPX would fail to do the obvious second leg down on the likely overall bull flag forming here, and in all likelihood SPX has now broken up from that bull flag. Confirmation that SPX is going up directly comes on a fill of the open island top gap from the mid-March high at 2752.01.

I’m leaning against another leg down here but if the bears are going to have (yet) another try at that, then first support is at the ES weekly pivot 2718.25 (same area on SPX), then a break of rising support from the mid-May low, now in the 2712 ES area. (more…)