Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

ZIRP Gains More Attention

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We have been talking about how there had been no bubble in US stocks and how the economy is doing just fine. We have also been talking about how the bubble is in policy and that the economy and stock bull market have been created – yes, like Frankenstein’s monster once again – out of this policy bubble.

Enter economist Joseph LaVorgna of Deutche Bank… Fed needs to start raising rates, top forecaster says.

Will wonders never cease? As you may know, I read the financial MSM to get a feel for what the casual market participant is reading, what the majority is being told is the truth. Usually it is some combo of self-promoters and agenda (sometimes political) driven bulls and bears. (more…)

Stretched

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When I looked at daily upper bollinger band rides a few days ago, I found twenty six examples in the last five years. The longest of those was ten days and there was only one of those. Yesterday was the eleventh day of the current daily upper band ride, so this band ride has already beaten the actuarial odds by quite a margin. Will it reverse today? Maybe, the overnight low was low than the Sunday night low, and that is a start at least.

SPX broke over resistance on the rising wedge from 1737 last week and while this may still be a bearish overthrow, SPX would need to break back below broken wedge resistance (1930 area) in the near future. Alternatively the wedge may be evolving into a channel, but in that case I would expect to see at least a test of 2000. SPX daily chart: (more…)