Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

US Dollar and Bonds

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No equity charts today as I covered that pretty thoroughly in my post yesterday. You can see that here if you missed it. Today I’m going to have a look at USD and bonds.

For the last few months I’ve had mixed feelings about USD, as there were, and still are, strong bull and bear scenarios. Last year I gave key support on USD at 78.6 and USD came close to testing that in May. However the marginal new low made in May didn’t challenge 78.6, and I’m increasingly leaning bullish. The daily RSI 5 is signalling a decent retracement here, but as long as the May low at 78.93 holds this retracement should be a buy, and I’d expect the next move up to test main double bottom resistance in the 81.5 area. USD daily chart: (more…)

The Fatted Calf

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The level of bear despair yesterday was impressive, and the percentage of bulls is now 62.2%, as compared to previous highs at 61.6% at the end of 2013, 62% in October 2007, 62.9% in December 2000 and 60.8% in August 2007. All of these previous readings were signals that large rallies were ….. um …….. ending, and that significant highs were being made.

I was delighted yesterday to identify the pattern for the current move, when the low yesterday established a perfect rising channel from the last lows at 1862. This is excellent news as we now have a clear marker for when the current move is ending at the break of channel support there. That break will signal that this move is topped or topping, though a retest of the highs would be routine after such a break, so it would be important not to jump on that break too hard when it happens. SPX 5min chart: (more…)

Sliding Off The Upper Band

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After a six day band ride SPX fell away slightly from the daily upper band yesterday, though it didn’t fall far, and the promising bearish look of the open faded swiftly. It is still possible that the band ride could continue another day or two, but if so we would need to see SPX return to upper band resistance today, and that would be in the 1932-6 area. It’s more likely however that we will see more retracement or consolidation over the next day or two. SPX daily chart:

140604 SPX Daily Rising Wedge and BBs

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Band Ride – Day 7?

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Yesterday was the sixth day of this ride up the daily upper band, and may well have been the last. Albeit SPX closed green it was the weakest day of the band ride so far, and never quite reached the upper band during the day, though it closed not far short. Fewer than 25% of band rides last more than six days, and fewer than 15% more than seven days, so the band ride is most likely over or ending shortly.

SPX has not quite reached my ideal rising wedge resistance trendline in the 1930-2 area, but it has hit an alternate and perfectly valid trendline at the high yesterday, so while SPX may go higher, equally it may not. If the high was yesterday then in all probability the likely opening gap today will not be filled. SPX daily chart:

140603 SPX Daily Rising Wedge

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