Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Apple Short

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OK, I need to talk about something – anything – to get Hillary's face off the top of Slope. So it'll be AAPL.

I've got puts on this, and I might get some more at these levels. I like how this price has broken its major trendline, fallen hard, and now has retraced to close its gap.

Here's a closer view.

It was weird to see the headline "Worst GDP in Six Years" this morning with a gain on the Dow next to it. Oh, well. As of this writing (only about 40 minutes into the open), it looks like the SPX and NDX are down, and the Dow has whithered away to just about flat. Naturally I always worry that the bad news is already priced in!

Looking Better

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OK, I am a fast typist (Sure, you want a piece of me? I'll take you on!), but I am nervously eying my battery indicator since I only have a few minutes of juice left. Start the tense music!

Today was a pretty good day. Our friend the Fibonacci continued to scare the IWM away. Hold that line!

Volume continues to shrivel, though. Do you realize today's IWM volume was one THIRD of what it was back on March 14th.

All that matters to me, though, is that we continue to carve out a series of lower highs and lower highs. Given that, we can rest assured we can trade bearishly and profitably. Violate that trend, and I get grumpy.

Since I am frantically trying to get this post done before my laptop goes kaflooie, I will simply post a few of my favorite positions now, without comment. I have puts on all of these. You can tell they tend to be retracements, by and large. I hope some of you yield some good ideas from these examples!

OK, I made it to the finish line! Good night! 

What about Gold and Oil?

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Well, it's hardly a rout, but 100+ points off the Dow as of this writing is a nice change. My index puts (SPX, NDX, RUT, DIA) are all doing dandy.

I had a field day over the past few weeks with oil and gold shorts, and I got out last week. I've been getting back in – – in some cases, too early – – although my interest in oil shorts is much stronger than gold shorts. I think gold as as commodity could shock everyone, heading to $2,000/ounce, so I'm not getting too freaky with the shiny stuff. I do find ABX an interesting "kiss the trendline" opportunity, so I've got a small position on those puts.

The slippery stuff, on the other hand, is getting possibly enticing again. 

 The IWM is pretty key at this point as for the indexes. The next Fib level to break is 69.05, and that's a ways away at this point (IWM is 69.67 as of this writing). IWM is in between Fibs at this point, so we'll just have to bide our time.

Shouldn’t Something Happen About Now?

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The surging popularity of Slope isn't lost on political pollsters, and in a desperate move to turn their fortunes around, the Clinton campaign contacted me not long ago so that Hillary herself could provide running commentary during the trading day.

Sadly, given the market's behavior of late, this went poorly for both viewers and candidate alike. I managed to get a screen shot off Slope TV.

It seems to me that it's about time that Something Happen. After all, weren't we getting a Bomb-Per-Week recently? C'mon, market newsmakers – show your stuff! Let another investment bank fail!  Expose a fraud! Something! This is getting dull! You can even see the dullness in volume shriveling up. It's less than half what it what a week ago!

Oh, this is totally random, but I offer you the least surprising event of my Facebook news feed today.

The Fibonacci retracement has been doing an admirable job keeping a line in the sand from being crossed. I hope it continues to do so.

What if it doesn't? What if the IWM, in spite of yet more economic bad news today, pushes above the 70.35 level? Well, there's a much bigger line in the sand above that. Of course, if it crosses above that, I don't even want to think about it.

I am somewhat heartened that maybe this little bull run has petered our. At least that's what the slow stochastic is indicating to me. I've tinted in prior instances of the SS pushing above the 80 line.

You can see in the lists on the right column what my holdings are, and investment banks are scattered here and there. When I look at a graph like this, the possibilities to me are very exciting.

 I'm going to close it here. I'm not as chatty as usual, because there isn't nearly as much to chat about. But I'm waiting for another shoe from the centipede to drop. Until then, we wait. Like Hillary.