Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

National Amnesia

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Well, it's nearly midnight on Monday as I'm typing this, and I suppose I felt compelled to put up a decent post in light of the lame-ass ones I submitted Monday. Call it blogger's guilt.

I get the feeling investors have severely impaired short-term memories. Anytime there's a lift in the market, the assumption is that all is well, and all the problems people were screaming about just a few days prior seem a distant memory.

Of particular interest to me is watching securities that are getting pummeled to death have frequent "pauses that refresh." You can just picture during every one of these instances people saying, 'Well, it looks like a nice base is forming and the selling is over. This looks like a buying opportunity." And then the stock breaks, and it's on to the next delusional bout. Just take a look at CFC to see what I mean.

I took advantage of the big surge up in prices lately to get more aggressive on the short side. I made some nice profits on the pop between last Thursday and today. I found the volume on IWM especially interesting. Just look at how the volume is shriveling up each day of this bull run. Not much oomph behind this rally, is there?

Of course, the insanity behind all the investment banks is a big part of this recent run-up. BSC is a basket case. But look how powerfully the XBD has rallied. To me, this retracement to the Fibonacci retracement level simply hammered home the shorting opportunity for me.

Here are a sampling (out of 50 open positions) of charts on which I have bearish positions. I've embellished them a little to help illustrate my rationale.

 All right, my guilt is passed. Off to bed………..see you Tuesday.

100% Pure Bear Once More

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Well, that didn't take long, did it?

I started the day with fifteen call positions (including some big ones on FXI and OIH), and I sold 'em all. Every one of them. I made a nice profit on just about every one, with a couple of minuscule losses here and there.

So I'm 100% in bear mode again, having exited during today's big rally. I've got 50 positions – 25 in one account, 25 in the other – and all of them are puts, including a few monster-sized index puts.

See, I may be a traitor to the cause, but my betrayals are measured in hours, not months. I'll excuse myself at this point because I'm doing an "open house" on Investools.com. I'm not sure if I'll have time to post again today, but I hope my multiple posts during the Easter weekend grant me some forgiveness among you.