Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Voluntarily Light

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I want to go on record:

  • I have lightened up a ridiculous amount in my portfolio, and I am at a snore-inducing 50% cash (!!!!)
  • As good as 2022 has been for the bears, I think the year’s biggest opportunity will present itself this summer for serious re-entry of positions;
  • I cannot recall a time in my life I’ve ever had such a large, idle cash balance in my account, but as dull as that is, I believe this is the appropriate place to be (even though it doesn’t exactly make for great content for Slope).
  • My biggest personal goal for the rest of the year is not to leave so much money on the table next time. I have had SO many screw-ups this week, it’s breathtaking. But still a record high for my portfolio.

Blood In The Streets

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I wanted to talk a bit this morning about big highs and lows on SPX. Obviously the economy may well be going into recession, interest rates will likely rise a lot further over coming years, and that has to happen really because examples in history where inflation has been brought under control without interest rates higher than that inflation are rare. The world is also particularly vulnerable to high interest rates because after so many years of very low interest rates, levels of both public and private debt are extremely high, and rising interest rates over time will likely force many people, companies and governments into defaulting on their debt. It is going to be rough.

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LABU Gap Bang

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The first half hour of trading today was madcap for me. I trimmed from 30 down to 19 positions and am now at an awkward 40% cash again. More interesting, in my personal account, I took on a HUGE long position in LABU yesterday and got out – – in a true rarity – – at almost precisely today’s top when it sealed that gap up. Huzzah! Anyway, that account is again at 100% cash now.