Good morning, everyone. These four-day weeks can really play with one’s head. I have to keep reminding myself today is Thursday, since my brain tends to anchor to the idea that First Day Trading=Monday.
Except for the nearly 100 point plunge we enjoyed early yesterday, the /ES has been stuck in a really dull 20 point trading range almost the entire time.
This is reflected in the fact that volatility keeps hammering its way back to zero. Just one month ago, it was nearly TWICE this high. Grumble.
The key right now is the 4100 level, which is of course the Big Round Number that brains latch onto, plus it seems to constitute some kind of line in the sand defining the basing pattern beneath. We need to see a clean break of 4100 to get the bear boat sailing again.
I’m particularly intrigued by energy stocks right now. I’ve suggested that my just-a-guess is that oil is about to peter out. In the short term, it’s certainly wobbly, and this week’s OPEC will hopefully give it some kind of clearer direction. I’m not into crude oil directly, but I have puts on XOP and SLB. Frankly I think crazy stuff like MRO and OXY are more interesting, but I’ve been burned enough by high-flying energy stocks this year to not bother.
Finally, one Sloper kindly posted this last night, showing the good news that the lovely people at the Federal Reserve are going to STUF until the next meeting in mid-June, so at least we don’t have the deal with the herky-jerky market results from their mewings.
