I'm not going to sugarcoat it: today sucked for me! A nearly 400 point rally does not do good things for a bear's portfolio!
I wasn't laid waste or anything like that. I guess I got stopped out of about 1/5th of my positions, and the rest of them took on some pretty serious damage. But I've suffered through these gigantic rallies before, and – – at least so far this year – – my portfolio has pushed on to record highs each time the market shakes off the bullishness.
Looking at the IWM, you can see the gargantuan overhead resistance (tinted in blue) and the intermediate term downward trend (the red sloping line). A meaningful push above $73 on the IWM would be really, really bad.
The Dow has a similar chunk of overhead resistance spanning some 1400 points, although we're only about a hundred points away from the underbelly of this level.
I took on a small put position on the S&P today, about an hour before the close, and I intend to add to it if things stall in the high 1300s. The VIX is relatively low, but obviously any put-buying is a contrarian act; you take the risk with the reward, after all.
My $NDX puts took serious damage today, as this market exploded nearly 5% higher. To my way of thinking, we are nearing both the underside of the broken trendline as well as the underside of the Fibonacci level, so I really expect some diminishment of bullishness soon.
I love what the FXI did today……….nailing both a descending trendline and the underside of its broken upward trendline. I bought puts on this at the circled price point.
I guess I'm a little bullish on gold right now. I picked up some calls on ABX and a couple of other stocks.
I have no position on AGN yet, but I'm keeping an eye on this one. I'd love to buy some puts if the price got to about $61 or so, which is pretty close.
After such a crappy day, it's time for a belly laugh. Enjoy.
