Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Nasty!

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I'm not going to sugarcoat it: today sucked for me! A nearly 400 point rally does not do good things for a bear's portfolio!

I wasn't laid waste or anything like that. I guess I got stopped out of about 1/5th of my positions, and the rest of them took on some pretty serious damage. But I've suffered through these gigantic rallies before, and – – at least so far this year – – my portfolio has pushed on to record highs each time the market shakes off the bullishness.

Looking at the IWM, you can see the gargantuan overhead resistance (tinted in blue) and the intermediate term downward trend (the red sloping line). A meaningful push above $73 on the IWM would be really, really bad. 

The Dow has a similar chunk of overhead resistance spanning some 1400 points, although we're only about a hundred points away from the underbelly of this level.

I took on a small put position on the S&P today, about an hour before the close, and I intend to add to it if things stall in the high 1300s. The VIX is relatively low, but obviously any put-buying is a contrarian act; you take the risk with the reward, after all.

My $NDX puts took serious damage today, as this market exploded nearly 5% higher. To my way of thinking, we are nearing both the underside of the broken trendline as well as the underside of the Fibonacci level, so I really expect some diminishment of bullishness soon.

I love what the FXI did today……….nailing both a descending trendline and the underside of its broken upward trendline. I bought puts on this at the circled price point.

I guess I'm a little bullish on gold right now. I picked up some calls on ABX and a couple of other stocks.

I have no position on AGN yet, but I'm keeping an eye on this one. I'd love to buy some puts if the price got to about $61 or so, which is pretty close.

After such a crappy day, it's time for a belly laugh. Enjoy.

Rough Day!

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I've been stopped out of a number of positions today………..HON, AAPL, GENZ, FLR, and a few others. My index puts (and most of my other positions) have been getting tossed about the room. Worrisome!

The intermediate line in the sand on the IWM, for me, is 70.49, and my stop on the $RUT is anything above 705.99.

I am following my "make it, then take it" rule I set up for myself at the end of 2007 – – – that is, after banking some good profits, I take it out of my account and shove it into my pocket. It's crude, I know, but it works. I'd rather keep my account size pretty consistent instead of trying to build it into something huge and then losing a big chunk on a big error. Days like today make me glad for such discipline. Remember: MAKE it, then TAKE it!

Day One Ya-Yas

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It seems the bulls view the start of this new quarter similar to how most people view each New Year………..an opportunity for a fresh start. A time to make amends. An opportunity to lose weight, make more money, and finally make that relationship commitment. Meh. This rally will last as long as those New Year's resolutions do.

In the meantime, enjoy the spiffy new grid charts we released last night. (For those of you on Prophet, Toolbox, or TOS, anyway)………