Imagine you had a job where you went to work every day, and at the end of two weeks, you got your first paycheck.
Then you worked two more weeks, and you were required to return the paycheck.
Then you worked two more weeks and got another paycheck. And, after working two more weeks, returned it yet again.
That is exactly what it feels like trading in this market. I have made – – and lost – – the same bag full of money more times than I care to count this year. The only smart thing I've done is, when my portfolio is up, I clear out a nice chunk of cash and shove it into my checking account where the markets can do it no harm. So I've at least "made" some money this year (by skimming off the top!)
But it's infuriating and frustrating. A day like today is devastating to a bearish portfolio. I've gone from 75 positions down to 43. Sure, in retrospect, if one simply threw money at anything to do with commodities, they'd be doing great (POT, MOS, AGU, CF, the list goes on and on).
But let me share you a story that might provide a bit of perspective as to where frustration and aggravation can get you.
Let's go back in time to almost exactly eight years ago. One of the hottest stocks on the face of the earth was Broadcom (BRCM). It looked like this:
The stock had gone up something like twenty-fold in the course of just a couple of years. Plus – – and this is really important – – the NASDAQ bubble had very obviously burst already, and even though the burst took BRCM down with it for a few months, the stock shook off the trouble and doubled in price! So it was like the Superman of equities.
Now, I took a keen interest in shorting BRCM, and I was carefully tracking it over the course of the summer of 2000. In October, I got my big chance. A perfect head and shoulders pattern had completed, and the price pushed beneath the neckline. Even though the stock was down about $50 from its highest price, it looked like it had plenty of downside. So I entered a huge short position.
What happened next? It went up! Against every notion of technical analysis, it shot higher, and it almost reached new lifetime highs! I was blown out of the short and was very disheartened.
A couple of weeks later, the stock fell again, this time falling even lower than before. So I shorted it again. And what happened? It went up! ARGH!!!! You can see both of these instances below, highlighted with the red ovals.
A couple of weeks later, it broke through the neckline again. And you know what I said? Screw it! I'm done with you! I've had enough of you taking my money! I'm not going to play this game again.
Of course, you know what happened next (the H&S pattern is that teeny little tinted blue area). The stock fell from its high of $185 down to something like $7 or so.
Is this some vapid "don't give up the ship!" tale? No, not really. The point is that my analysis on BRCM was correct, and even though there were a few false starts, the trade panned out precisely as I thought it would. But I became my own worst enemy, because by being burned twice before, I chose to ignore the analysis.
So how many times should I have jumped in and tried? What if it pulled this false breakout stunt twenty times in a row? That's the unanswerable question. And that's why I don't beat myself up too bad. Because, after all, a failed pattern isn't a good sign.
What I am trying to say, however, is that prayers delayed aren't necessarily prayers denied. The monstrous problems we can all see in the world's economy haven't been cured over the past couple of weeks. People are much more comfortable getting into stocks, and buying creates higher prices. The low $VIX is a sign of that. The huge rally today is a sign of that. And, with IBM's after-hours earnings created yet another bullish stir, we could be in for more pain tomorrow!
So we've lost a battle today, but the war's not over. Stay rational, and keep your stops up-to-date. We can only rely on reason in order to trade rationally. Anything else is just gambling and luck.
