As I've mentioned before, observers of financial markets speak of "critical junctures" on, it seems, a daily basis. I try hard to refrain from using this phrase often, but I sincerely think we're at a key juncture at this point, based on the charts.

As a preface, I will note that complacency is as low as it has been all year. The $VIX dipped down into "the teens" again for only the second time in 2008.

Let's look at the bullish case first. Some people have pointed out inverted head & shoulders patterns. The cleanest one I see is on the NASDAQ Composite, shown on an intraday basis below. A clear break above 2,450 or so would be disastrous for the bears. A fully-realized breakout would send this index hundreds of points higher.

A somewhat shoddier inverted H&S is presented by the Russell 2000. But note both the chart below and above have prices getting very near major resistance lines as well. So there is certainly a yin-yang tension at this point.

 Lest I get the bears too scared, allow me to show the next graph, which for me is jumping-up-and-down bearish. Plus, it's a daily graph, not an intraday one, which obviously has far more import. This is the High-Tech index, and this is about as clean a head and shoulders pattern as I've seen in a while. Now, this pattern may have already been fulfilled by the nearly 100 point drop in January. However, the retracement – which has been hammered out over virtually the rest of 2008 – is all the way back to the neckline. This strikes me as a delicious shorting opportunity with relatively low risk.

A somewhat similar retracement is exhibited by the Dow 30, although the pattern is not nearly as clean. Dow 13,000 has been a very important line in the sand, and in spite of the Dow's strength today, that line was still not crossed.

My bearish disposition toward the gold market paid off again. My puts on ABX and $XAU had good profits (about 50% and 100%), and although it's entirely possible I got out too early, I'd rather be safe than sorry. A break beneath $170 on the $XAU may suggest a farther drop to $150 or so. This is a decent H&S pattern, but before you get excited, look immediately before it, and you'll see a somewhat similar pattern that didn't lead to jack squat.

Poor Jana – – battered by China. Your redemption may be at hand! Looking at either side of this line, it's almost like a error image. The reduction of a stamp tax (what is, this, 1775?) is a silly reason for a market to go up. Come on. Get real.

That's all from the Timster. I haven't done a video in ages. Just haven't had the time. If we ever get a real blowout day, I'll probably be giddy enough to do one. Until then, text will have to suffice.

I owe you guys a good post. I know I do.

In the meantime, I'll confess that, in my IRA, I've loaded up with ten "battered" issues and have trimmed my DUG (double-inverse on oil and gas) from 2800 shares to 1800 shares.

The other ten long positions are small (about 5k each), but even shortly after the entry the screen is all green. I've got relatively tight stops on all of them, set just beneath the lows of this week.

OOF, seems Disqus is down (again). ARGH! It's a nice system (when it works). Frustrating.

I have zero time, so this is going to be quick.

• I started the day seeing gold and oil down sharply. Good.
• I sold my $XAU puts and ABX puts at handsome profits, as they achieved what I felt were good short-term targets.
• I also sold my CMG puts at a nice profit.
• My portfolio was up well into the five-digits of profits that morning.
• I took my kids to school
• I return, and my portfolio is down five digits because the indexes blew from Dow down 40 to Down up 120. WTF?

So it's time to look at charts and figure out what's going on and make sure my stops are well-placed.

It wasn't that long ago that I'd do one blog entry a day and feel like a champ. This is my 5th posting today, and I'd feel guilty if I didn't get it done. Anyhoo………

I see that the Chinese stock markets are exploding higher again. The excuse this time is that the government – which seems passionately devoted to propping up its local stock market – dropped its "trading tax" by two-thirds. That sounds like a lot, but this tax went from 3 tenths of a percent to 1 tenth of a percent. In spite of what sounds like rounding error to me, that was cause for celebration in China.

I've noticed something else as well – – "calling the bottom" has become a passionate hobby these days. It seems like everyone is convinced that the grueling (10%), extremely long (weeks and weeks) bear market is finally at an end. I offer ABK as a symbol of the danger of bottom calling. At every one of the tinted zones shown below, one could have plausibly said, "prices have stabilized and things are settling down; time to buy!" And you can see what happened each time.

A deeper example of how badly people can get it wrong sometimes is Starbucks. This company, which dropped another 10% after hours today, has been falling for months. But go to Amazon and do a search for Starbucks, and you'll see a mountain of books that tell business people how they can emulate the Starbucks way to forge their own prosperity.

I won't bother showing the OIH graph for a millionth time; it has displaced IWM as my obsession these days. I will tip my hat at the reader who turned me on to DUG, the double-inverse fund. I put my entire IRA into this item, and it's up nicely over a just a couple of days. I could see 20-25% more over the coming weeks, possibly. I've drawn a tiny red line indicating my entry point.

My puts in ABX and $XAU are doing nicely. Gold is really starting to take a beating. I'd consider getting out when it gets down to that purple zone. Until then, I'm holding.

I have a kitchen in serious need of cleaning, and as a Felix Unger type, duty calls. Good night, and I'll see you in the ante meridian.