Well, over the past couple of days, I've discovered a couple of things about Slope readers.

• They are committed germophobes. At least Jana and AssetStrategist. Wussies.
• They have passionate views about Elliott Wave. I don't think I've ever received as many emails on a single topic (except for that time that I sang a capella). 

Today was a good day for me, in spite of the continued rise of oil and gold. The Russell 2000 fell below 700 for the first time since the April Fool's Day Rally, and it closed near its lows of the day.

The Dow Transports, which had been worrying me a bit due to a possible breakout, fell particularly sharply (due, I suppose to UPS' warning).

Of particular interest was the drop on the $XBD securities broker/deal index. I've got puts on a number of investment banks (including GS and LEH), and this chart to me is a picture-perfect "waterfall" with a plain series of lower lows and lower highs. May it continue!

I have 75 different positions now – all of them puts (as is almost always the case). Here are a few worth pointing out……..

America Movil (AMX), like the $TRAN, was threatening a breakout, but it is starting to fall away. Failed bullish breakouts made for great bear meat.

BIDU (which reports earnings, weirdly, on Saturday) isn't a slam-dunk, but an earnings disappointment here could easily nuke 40-50 points off the price.

FXI is finally starting to click. The climb from $120 to $150 (25% in just a couple of weeks!) is beginning to erode.

A somewhat more speculative play on my books is ISRG, which had been a barnstormer until the end of last year. Here again we have the prospect of a failed bullish breakout. The stop on all of these is obviously the horizontal line.

I mentioned oil's strength before. The commodity was in record territory again, nearing $110. Let's see if we get a double-top on it. My stop at $195 stands firm for OIH.

Among my long list of energy-related shorts is PBR, which has the makings of a nice head and shoulders top.

Finally, Valmont (VMI) is hammering out what I think could be the third part of a triple top.

This stage of the market, for me, involves a lot more speculation than usual (hence my language being filled with "could be" and "looks like" and "might). It's just the nature of the beast right now. As for tomorrow, it is the only interesting day for economic reports this week. Let's hope for some follow through, eh?

Let me start with an important disclaimer: I know only enough about Elliott Wave Theory to be dangerous. I am very, very new to this, and I am currently studying Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably with the goal of understanding this topic better.

I imagine I would have endeavored to learn about this topic many years ago, but I felt very badly burned after reading At the Crest of the Tidal Wave back in 1995. The author, Robert Prechter, made what I thought was a very compelling case for the Dow to hit a wall at something like 4,500 and plunge to Depression-era levels. It was my fault to take the book so seriously, but I definitely felt "cheated" out of the incredible surge from 1995-1999 based on my embrace of this book.

Long story short, I was so disenchanted with my experience, I decided the entire topic of Elliott Wave Theory must be a big load of crap.

I also am sensitive to the frequent dismissals of EWT based on the fact that proponents can change their prognostications and predictions at will simply by saying "I had the count wrong!" I am a stickler for technical analysis being either Right or Not Right about a given prediction, and I don't allow myself "rubber trendlines" or other such graces in my own work. Revisionism is the road to ruin.

Having said all that, I still want to give EWT a shot. I become interested in the subject again by tripping across Tony Caldaro's web site, The Elliott Wave Lives On. I don't know Tony, but when I wrote him a few weeks back asking permission to display one of his charts, he promptly wrote me back and said yes. So he's already a good guy in my book!

Anyway, back around the start of the year, he created this intriguing chart and had the testicular fortitude to make a prediction. I was so interested in the chart, I printed it out and have been toting it around in my backpack ever since.

I was re-examining this chart a couple of days ago, and, to my eyes, what unfolded was pretty remarkable. I'm not sure if Tony would agree with my own very "greenhorn" analysis, but what I see is:

The big question, of course, is whether the B-wave has finished or not. Third time: I barely know what I am doing, so I have no idea. But if the analysis is correct and the B wave precedes the C-wave downward, which will push it below this year's lows, that would mean a return of some cool times for the bears.

Having issued so many caveats, I hopefully have defused any egg-throwing. But I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts on this topic and EWT in general. 

My stab at EWT is going to be delayed a bit. I just wanted to jump in and observe (gratefully) that the IWM has finally started getting interesting for the bears again. I think even a 1^st grader could identify this pattern.

Blogger's Guilt strikes again. I gotta get a new post up. It's been hours! And last night's stunk! Aieeeeee!

I'm going to compose my view of the markets based on some (very amateurish on my part) Elliott Wave observations. Coming soon. Don't give up.