Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

For Pete’s Sake…….

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It may honestly seem like I just come here to bellyache about how boring the markets are, but that's really not my cup of tea. It's just a plain fact these days. I wish I could dream up entertainment for you, but at this stage, I can't. Nothing says it better than the somniferous $VIX.

The IWM pushed higher today to what I thought would be a bounce off its neckline. Nope. It sailed through the neckline, and the Dow was up in the triple digits again. Then it started to fade. Because this market can't make up its mind, can it? It fell beneath the neckline (which in this case is one of the Fibonacci retracements), and then zipped above it again. So it's acting more like a magnetic than a point of support or resistance. Annoying.

The Dow Transports are still threatening to blast higher. A cut above that 5,025 level would be pretty bullish. Yesterday's repulsion from this level doesn't spell the end of this pattern at all.

The NASDAQ had a strong day relative to other broad markets, and we've spent every day since the April Fool's Day rally fiddling around. There's no clear direction here. It's aggravating to both sides, I'm sure.

I don't bother trading the $SOX, but if I had to find a bullish index pattern, this would be a pretty strong one (along with the $TRAN, should the aforementioned breakout occur).

Looking at the purple lines below (which are the mid-term Fibs), we remain below the level of resistance set at about 1,390. The thick red lines represent shorter-term Fibs, and we're below the one at 1,380. A break below 1,330 is essential within the next week or so for the bears to get control again.

Oil (particularly OIH) continues to be exasperating, although at least the oil service stocks are not rocketing to lifetime highs like crude oil is. I look for silver linings where I can!

MRK has fallen a lot this year, but for those who believe the downtrend will continue, this is a pretty good place to do it (a nice doji pattern at a Fibonacci line).

Now for a few charts I really don't mention much. These aren't really optionable, but I think they are pretty good shorts. There's Acuity Brands (AYI):

CNH Global:

FMC Technologies:

Randgold Resources (with the nifty ticker symbol GOLD):

Wimm-Bill Dann (WBD), sporting a really handsome topping pattern:

And, more risky, Sunpower (SPWR) with a clean stop at $95:

Blog traffic remains strong, although it's inching down, because the markets aren't that interesting to read about these days. Friday (tomorrow) is pretty much devoid of economic news or any interesting earnings reports, so we may just fart around again. Earnings season goes full-tilt in a couple of weeks, so there will be lots to talk about every single day. Until then……..take it easy!

Adding to RUT

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It's sometimes tempting to trade more actively. I saw a nice four-figure (nearly five-figure) profit on my screen this morning. I walk away to make a bowl of oatmeal. I come back, and it's a four-figure loss. And it's not because something dramatic happened. But the market is going to wiggle its way up or down constantly. My intuition tells me that trying to overly optimize one's trading profits is probably a great way to wind up with a $0 balance.

So I'm taking it easy, and the only action this morning is to beef up my Russell 2000 put position, since I think what we have at the moment is a pretty nice retracement on the (admittedly small) H&S pattern that finally was realized yesterday.

I'm going to be pretty quiet today, as I've got an important most-of-the-day meeting. See ya later…..