Let me start by saying that this tax rebate that Bush was yakking about all day is going to stimulate only one thing: the deficit. The notion that this political gimmick is going to magically turn the sinking economy around is absurd. Those checks are going to be as potent as the Gerald Ford W.I.N. buttons from three decades ago.

Now, there has been something very weird going on with IWM volume. I was going to mention it a couple of days ago, but I shrugged it off. But it's going on long enough that I have to point it out. That way – – the volume is alternating! High one day. Low the next. High one day. Low the next. It's almost a perfect oscillating pattern. I have no conclusions about this. It's just………..weird. The volume graph is starting to resemble a comb!

One area where steady volume is not a problem is crude oil. This market pushed toward the $120 zone today. It's always something. This time is was a U.S. ship shooting a missile or something. God knows. It seems almost any news pushes crude oil higher these days.

Although OIH was, in turn, higher, it isn't making new highs like crude itself. I am very bearishly positioned with respect to oil. It's either going to break very soon, or else I'm going to have a lot of stop-loss orders on my hands.

One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.

SLB has surged very strong for most of 2008. This pattern is more speculative.

And, with all due respect to beanie (and you can take that however you want), I've got puts on two major solar stocks. Sunpower……

…..and heavyweight First Solar………So I can already tell you next week, if FSLR has blowout earnings and I get stopped out, beanie will have 57 posts about how right he was. If the stock plunges, he'll be nowhere to be found. Count on it.

In spite of the markets (irritating) strength today, I still see equities as fundamentally broken at this point.

The S&P 500, on which I own puts, is mushed right up against the underbelly of its broken channel as well as its descending trendline. That's on top of the psychologically important 1400 level.

The Russell 2000, on which I also own puts, is in a similar pattern.

And the NASDAQ is banging against its 25% line on its channel. Now this one I'm more nervous about, since it is sporting a not-too-terrible inverted head and shoulders pattern.

But, as I mentioned yesterday, I draw some comfort from the formidable bearish pattern on the $MSH (whose options, regrettably, are so thinly traded as to not be worth pursuing).

Apple had a strong weak, but I have reason to believe this candlestick today presages a drop next week.

And, in my opinion, IBM blown gassed its way about as high as it's going to go against that trendline; I've got a stop here at 125.

Lastly, the $XBD index has encouraged me to buy puts on investment banks, which have recovered sharply since the BSC debacle five weeks ago. I've got positions in Lehman……

………Goldman……..

………JP Morgan……….

…….and another "Morgan", this one Stanley………

It's been weeks and weeks since we've had a juicy, consistent bearish hammering of equities. Oh, I miss those days. But I remain confident that one day soon the bear will be back. He'd better. Otherwise this blog is going to get pretty dour!