Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

As Goes the VIX, So Goes the Market

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I don’t have a trade for you all in this post, but I just wanted to quickly share the VIX and its tendencies for forecasting the S&P500’s potential.  First, I want to point out the uptrend line in the VIX right now.  I’ve highlighted the times when VIX has returned to those trendlines in the past year.  At most, price has returned to the highs during such declines, but once the VIX trendline is hit, caution is very warranted, especially since sometimes, that touch then launches actual sustained selling periods.

I made a minor mistake on the chart below.  You should note to ignore the first decline in each cluster because that was the decline that established the trendline before which none existed.  Before these trendlines were broken, there was always a meaningful spike in the VIX first.  This doesn’t always happen, but once it does, upside is the path of least resistance.

161019 - VIX returns to uptrend lines

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Simplifying the Complex Metals Complex

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Oct 15 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: We have many analysts and commenters posting many different perspectives on the metals for years. Some view them as a terrible investment and others view it as the only reasonable investment. I am not going to discuss the merits or fallacies contained in both of their perspectives, but I would like to simplify the potential in the complex for the average investor.

You see, this complex is not that complex at all. Sentiment is what controls this market, and when sentiment reaches an extreme, the market shifts in the opposite direction. That is what we are patiently awaiting at this time.

Currently, our wave structure suggests that we can see one more lower low to complete a 5th wave in a c-wave of this wave ii pullback. While I certainly can be wrong in this assessment, this is my higher probability wave count at this time. And, as long as we remain over support, I will maintain this count and expectation.

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