Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Charts Worth Watching

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Just a few of the many charts I am trying to keep an eye on (and yeah, my head is spinning… but in a good way).

First, here is my friend Huey; HUI tickled the top of the longstanding downside target today.  It is now time for gold stock aficionados to be on alert.  The ones who were ready for this as buyers, at least.  Assuming the fundamentals are at least somewhat in order (there has been some short-term damage in that area) the downside would seem to be limited to the April gap, down around 180.  Regardless, technical risk is much reduced now and I bought a couple bombed out, but quality items items today.  No hurry; bounces notwithstanding, this may not be as quick a process as some may hope.

hui daily chart

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Tempus Fugit

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In case you missed it, I did a post last night talking about the pattern structure and timing on SPX/ES, NQ and TF, and if you missed that you can see that here.

Another slowish day on ES/SPX. No support breaks yet and the ES weekly pivot at 2154 (2162 SPX area) may be being converted to support, but not with any real confidence yet. Both SPX and ES are in a rising channel and a triangle, but are running out of time to do the obvious next step of a break up into a retest of the all time high. The high window on SPX lasts until the close tomorrow, with a possible spill into Monday, but unless we see some upward movement soon, this is just a consolidation before the next leg down. SPX 60min chart:

161006 SPX 60min Pattern Support Levels

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Read and Listen to the Media, be a Day Late, Lot of Dollars Short

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Seriously, the longer I do this more intolerant I become with the whole financial media/services/advice complex.  Stoopid MSM headlines this morning…

Dollar holds gains as investors set their watches for jobs data (ooh, the tension mounts)

Markets counting down to big Jobs Friday (T-minus… to BIG Jobs)

Gold loses shine as Fed feelings lift dollar (blah blah blah…)

European stocks hemmed in with ECB minutes on deck (of course, there has to be a reason they’d be little changed; this one’s as good as any)

This is why the Stock Market’s complacency is about to end (tell me genius, do tell… )

Dow, S&P 500, bonds trade like a Fed rate hike isn’t cause to stress out (because it isn’t, Captain Obvious)

And that is just the MSM; factor in the opinion and propaganda from the blogosphere and the gold bug cult “community” and it’s no wonder people get confused.  I get email from very decent and intelligent people asking what I think is going on, what is going to happen.  It is obvious that the disparity of opinions (much of it stated confidently as virtual fact) flying around out there has people flummoxed (hey, that’s a word I’ve never written before, ever in my life).

But there is no ‘IS’.  There are only probabilities.  A good bit of the crap in the MSM and from the lesser lights in the blogging ecosystem speaks in definite terms because it is either trying to get eyeballs or it is pitching its dogma to its own gain.  On any given day it seems like a majority of the financial complex is hanging an ad in its window saying “come consume what I have to offer!  I’m right and here’s why…” and then the story changes for the MSM as it simply hangs new ads in its window the next day; and as for the lesser touts?

Why, they simply start reporting the news, as in… Thought bubble:  ‘Shit, I was wrong big time to be touting that trend even after it ended, but I need to figure out a spin…’ Stated publicly:  “Gold and Silver are in a correction and support looks to be in the…”

So tomorrow is “big Jobs” Friday.  Whoop de doo!  The Semiconductor Equipment sector gave its signal so many months ago.  Some people fought me on this, either knowingly (you know who you are) or from an expert’s perch, unknowingly.  Also, Brexit did not end the world, Europe is talking about tapering QE and things have held up just fine.

Now it’s “big Jobs” week.  The ultimate lagging data point will be reported tomorrow and if it goes over 200K (experts are forecasting 169k) there will be a cacophonous uproar.  But we will not be surprised because we had early, forward looking data months ago (which has already manifested in a big jobs recovery over the last few months).

I guess all I am saying is will you please tune down the cacophony?  It is unhealthy.

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