"The wiseacres on the Street are quick to cloak their opportunistic bullishness in the guise of being contrarians, making a lot of noise about how everyone's so blamed bearish. The true contrarians these days are not the optimists, but, rather, those of us who believe that most investors, for all they might profess a negative tilt for the nonce, simply haven't a clue as to how bad things might get." – Barron's, March 31, 2008

Set aside all the other stuff. Set aside the sentiment indicators and CNBC. Ignore the bottom-fishers and the volatility readings. Turn your back on the pundits and the prognosticators. And just ask yourself this………

Looking at these quarterly charts of the major indexes, do you consider them bullish or bearish? It all comes down to that. Because we immerse ourselves in the tick-by-tick gyrations of every trading day, it's easy to lose sight of the big picture. So sometimes we need to make the granularity much, much cruder to gain true insight. So ask yourself that question, answer honestly, and act accordingly.