Let me start by saying that this tax rebate that Bush was yakking about all day is going to stimulate only one thing: the deficit. The notion that this political gimmick is going to magically turn the sinking economy around is absurd. Those checks are going to be as potent as the Gerald Ford W.I.N. buttons from three decades ago.

Now, there has been something very weird going on with IWM volume. I was going to mention it a couple of days ago, but I shrugged it off. But it's going on long enough that I have to point it out. That way – – the volume is alternating! High one day. Low the next. High one day. Low the next. It's almost a perfect oscillating pattern. I have no conclusions about this. It's just………..weird. The volume graph is starting to resemble a comb!

One area where steady volume is not a problem is crude oil. This market pushed toward the $120 zone today. It's always something. This time is was a U.S. ship shooting a missile or something. God knows. It seems almost any news pushes crude oil higher these days.

Although OIH was, in turn, higher, it isn't making new highs like crude itself. I am very bearishly positioned with respect to oil. It's either going to break very soon, or else I'm going to have a lot of stop-loss orders on my hands.

One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.

SLB has surged very strong for most of 2008. This pattern is more speculative.

And, with all due respect to beanie (and you can take that however you want), I've got puts on two major solar stocks. Sunpower……

…..and heavyweight First Solar………So I can already tell you next week, if FSLR has blowout earnings and I get stopped out, beanie will have 57 posts about how right he was. If the stock plunges, he'll be nowhere to be found. Count on it.

In spite of the markets (irritating) strength today, I still see equities as fundamentally broken at this point.

The S&P 500, on which I own puts, is mushed right up against the underbelly of its broken channel as well as its descending trendline. That's on top of the psychologically important 1400 level.

The Russell 2000, on which I also own puts, is in a similar pattern.

And the NASDAQ is banging against its 25% line on its channel. Now this one I'm more nervous about, since it is sporting a not-too-terrible inverted head and shoulders pattern.

But, as I mentioned yesterday, I draw some comfort from the formidable bearish pattern on the $MSH (whose options, regrettably, are so thinly traded as to not be worth pursuing).

Apple had a strong weak, but I have reason to believe this candlestick today presages a drop next week.

And, in my opinion, IBM blown gassed its way about as high as it's going to go against that trendline; I've got a stop here at 125.

Lastly, the $XBD index has encouraged me to buy puts on investment banks, which have recovered sharply since the BSC debacle five weeks ago. I've got positions in Lehman……

………Goldman……..

………JP Morgan……….

…….and another "Morgan", this one Stanley………

It's been weeks and weeks since we've had a juicy, consistent bearish hammering of equities. Oh, I miss those days. But I remain confident that one day soon the bear will be back. He'd better. Otherwise this blog is going to get pretty dour!

I'm bearish. Really bearish. Big surprise, eh? But, honestly, the charts are looking sensational.

The one bullish chart, $SOX, seems to have had its run. And the one risky chart, $TRAN, looks kind of Fib-bound to me, and is approaching (at best) its next resistance level.

I'm pretty excited about where things stand now for the bears. Take that as a contrary signal if you must, but that's what I'm thinking. 

There's been chatter in the comments section lamenting the relatively infrequency of my IWM musings, now that OIH and company have pushed it aside. Well, let me throw you guys a bone:

As you can see, the Fibonacci is doing a yeoman's job of keeping the bulls at bay. There was a bit of a violation of this line a number of days ago, but it was swiftly tamped down.

This morning's lame-o consumer sentiment numbers snuffed out an early rally (I'm only typing this 40 minutes into the trading day, so keep that in mind). I suspect the bulls – like Bill Clinton, shown below – may soon be asking themselves, "what am I getting myself into???"

As I've mentioned before, observers of financial markets speak of "critical junctures" on, it seems, a daily basis. I try hard to refrain from using this phrase often, but I sincerely think we're at a key juncture at this point, based on the charts.

As a preface, I will note that complacency is as low as it has been all year. The $VIX dipped down into "the teens" again for only the second time in 2008.

Let's look at the bullish case first. Some people have pointed out inverted head & shoulders patterns. The cleanest one I see is on the NASDAQ Composite, shown on an intraday basis below. A clear break above 2,450 or so would be disastrous for the bears. A fully-realized breakout would send this index hundreds of points higher.

A somewhat shoddier inverted H&S is presented by the Russell 2000. But note both the chart below and above have prices getting very near major resistance lines as well. So there is certainly a yin-yang tension at this point.

 Lest I get the bears too scared, allow me to show the next graph, which for me is jumping-up-and-down bearish. Plus, it's a daily graph, not an intraday one, which obviously has far more import. This is the High-Tech index, and this is about as clean a head and shoulders pattern as I've seen in a while. Now, this pattern may have already been fulfilled by the nearly 100 point drop in January. However, the retracement – which has been hammered out over virtually the rest of 2008 – is all the way back to the neckline. This strikes me as a delicious shorting opportunity with relatively low risk.

A somewhat similar retracement is exhibited by the Dow 30, although the pattern is not nearly as clean. Dow 13,000 has been a very important line in the sand, and in spite of the Dow's strength today, that line was still not crossed.

My bearish disposition toward the gold market paid off again. My puts on ABX and $XAU had good profits (about 50% and 100%), and although it's entirely possible I got out too early, I'd rather be safe than sorry. A break beneath $170 on the $XAU may suggest a farther drop to $150 or so. This is a decent H&S pattern, but before you get excited, look immediately before it, and you'll see a somewhat similar pattern that didn't lead to jack squat.

Poor Jana – – battered by China. Your redemption may be at hand! Looking at either side of this line, it's almost like a error image. The reduction of a stamp tax (what is, this, 1775?) is a silly reason for a market to go up. Come on. Get real.

That's all from the Timster. I haven't done a video in ages. Just haven't had the time. If we ever get a real blowout day, I'll probably be giddy enough to do one. Until then, text will have to suffice.