I'm starting to worry that this economy is mysteriously stronger – – either through truthful data or otherwise – – than we had suspected. In spite of a host of unprecedented challenges, including a collapsing housing market and exploding energy costs, the U.S. consumer still seems fully committed to keep using debt to buy stuff. And buying stuff is what makes this country tick. And for all that, it was an awful day for the bears, with a rise on the Dow far in excess of 200 points.
The tidy gains made over the prior three days were wiped out in one session. What bothers me isn't they forsaken profits – – it's the wasted time. It takes a lot of time to analyze charts, do good analysis, execute trades, and set responsible stops. That time is well spent when it yields profits. But in a see-saw market when paper profits get nuked by a single strong day, the only gain to be had is exasperation.
One could, I suppose, avoid such frustration by piling into any of the momentum stocks that are trading, such as the one below. I just don't have the personality to do it, just like I didn't have the personality in 1999 to pile into Internet stocks. I'm too scared of when the music is going to stop playing. Shame on me for being that way, but it's just how I'm put together. The stock below, for all I know, could go up ten-fold from here. But a chart like this simply makes me nervous.
Besides strong retail sales, another thing pushing up the market (particularly with oil and commodity issues) was the resumption of the dollar's fall and oil's rise. Crude oil futures pushed nearly 5% higher today alone.
Another disturbingly bullish sign is the $XBD. I had mentioned a few days ago the nascent series of higher highs and higher lows had been eliminated. I'm embarrassed to say this was incorrect due to a data error from our price feed. This error has been corrected, and as you can see, the setup for a reversal in this index is still very much intact.
Some charts are weaker than others, of course. The Dow, for example, seems to be simply fighting its way back in the context of the 800 points it lost over a couple of weeks.
Whereas the Dow Transports are in new record high territory. Not yearly high. Record, never-seen-before high. In the face of $130 oil, this is astonishing.
Tech-related indexes have gone up 20% or more in the past 10 weeks or so, and some of them are approaching the underside of their broken trendlines.
An even easier one to read is the $COMPQ. This close within molecules of that blue resistance line. Unless tomorrow starts weak and stays week, my interpretation of these charts is going to have to change.
The $NDX pushed to a record high close for 2008. It was only on Tuesday that this index was on the cusp of breaking its supporting trendline. {Expletive deleted}.
My former buddy $RUT close at its high for the day and a new high for 2008. Very broadly speaking, it is still in a lower-lows, lower-highs pattern, but you have to step back to a pretty long-term chart to see it. The past 10 weeks have been wretched for bears.
The stories vary more widely when you get down to individual stocks. AAPL is pushing towards the underbelly of its trendline, but the problem with that strategy is that a stock can keep making new highs while obediently staying beneath its former supporting line. My stop on this is not far away.
Even though FSLR shot up over 13 points today, I am not worried about this position, as we are still below the very plainly broken trendline, and I am confident that oil will, over the weeks, soften up, causing this to soften as well.
AGN is presenting those without a position with a potentially low-risk opportunity to get into this short. Unlike many of the issues I follow, this one has been in a general downtrend for months.
ATI was one of the very few issues in my portfolio to do well today (that is, go down, even if by a little). In the face of a day like today, that's a good sign.
CHTT is also very attractive; this price is approaching its neckline again, which as most of us know represents the ideal entry point for head and shoulders patterns.
Anyway, today stunk. And I'm sorry to have been so out of pocket. I was not in the mood to talk about the markets, as you might guess, and I had my share of technical issues in the morning. Let's see if Friday is any better or if it simply makes this week stink up the joint even worse.
