All my fretting today was pointless. As is so often the case, just letting the stops do their work, and let the market go where it will, is the best policy. As most of you know, since I was on a plane during most market hours today, I was really stressed out about what I was missing. But, in spite of all the ups and downs – some of them terribly worrisome – it ended up just great. This is the kind of screen I like to see on my portfolios………all red at the top (the indexes) and all green at the bottom (the net daily change for each of my positions).
I've got to say, since I'm a hopeless worrywart, I am starting to be concerned about an intermediate term bottom. Looking at the Dow 30, for instance, there's a pretty formidable Fibonacci line coming up at around 11,500, which isn't that far away. We have, after all, fallen about 1300 points in just the past month or so.
The Transports, too, are nearing a Fibonacci level, although please note this retracement series is on a much shorter time scale than the $INDU's, above.
My "purple line in the sand" turned out to be just as strong a level of resistance as I hoped. We are getting close to a channel line that – – yet again – – could represent substantial support.
Let's keep beating a dead horse here……….the $NDX is already at its Fibonacci level, and its "spinning top" candlestick suggests a pause here. What better day for a bounce up in the market than Bernanke & Company's announcement.
Oddly, the Russell 2000 looks like a good, solid short to me. I've got a bunch of puts on this, and they're doing terrific. I've tinted in green the target price level. So I'm sort of in love with the $RUT after a hiatus.
As disgusted as I was with OIH, I still watch it, and I really do wonder if we're seeing a failed breakout here. This pattern is pretty ugly for the OIH bulls. It's just one day, but it's not a good sign for them.
Lastly, my $CZH comment a few days ago (about bouncing away from that tinted area) turned out to be correct.
The following avalanche of charts I offer without commentary, except that I really, really like 'em (and have either puts or short positions on each of them).
Tomorrow (Wednesday) is going to be pretty interesting. We've got durable goods orders in the morning, then Bernanke at 2:15 EST, and them a bunch of interesting earnings (ORCL and RIMM) after the bell. I'll probably do a post sometime intraday. See you then!
