Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Shorting Gold (with no mention of Michael Phelps anywhere!)

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From time to time, I get together with thinkorswim co-founder Tom Sosnoff and do the "Tom & Tim Show", which consists of me talking about charts and Tom talking about how he would trade them. We have great fun with this, and as is obvious to anyone in the audience, it is totally unrehearsed. He doesen't even know what symbols I'm going to talk about.

One thing I've learned from these is about GLD, since I often show a $XAU chart. As we all know, options on the XAU are horrible – – huge bid/ask spreads, miniscule volume and open interest – – yuck. Tom turned me on to GLD as an alternate, and although it's not going to win awards for the most tradeable options in the world, it's much better. I bought a ton of puts on GLD this morning during gold's surge.

As of this writing, GLD is sporting a fantastic shooting star pattern. I'm using 84.68 (the level of that horizontal line) as the contingent stop.

Ag-Happy

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I haven't had time to read a single comment in about the past 20 hours. I will say that, given the recent boost in ags and energy, there are a lot of attractive possibilities out there. This chart of gold is sort of my guide on this matter, and although it might have a little juice left, that horizontal line is very formidable resistance.

Here are my ideas and their contingent-stop prices.

AG 63.14
AGU 91.86
AKS 66.40
ANR 98.59
APA 121.27
ACI 60.72
ABX 36.82
CME 360.95
CMP 78.49
CRK 65.74
DVN 113.84
EOG 111.43
FWLT 56.86
FCX 101.39
HES 109.23
JRCC 51.23
MOS 115.99
PXD 67.66
SGY 55.30
RIG 135.61

So Right, So Wrong

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I've said it so many times recently that it's becoming tiresome: EUR/USD up; energy up; gold up. This has come true in spades.

The problem is that to some degree I didn't wait long enough. I am partially positioned to take advantage of the above, but in some cases, I bought puts (or hung on to puts I already owned) in the areas of agriculture stocks that would have been wiser to shed. Because the entire universe of oil, gold, agriculture, and the euro have all blasted higher.

I am highly confident these will all turn the other direction, but I admit it's difficult to know when. The EUR/USD in particular looks like it has the potential to go much higher below crumbling once more.

Time to look at some charts……..