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Three reasons:
It seems to me, given how the world has been completely turned upside down over the past 15 months, that it would be tempting for an investor to fall into one of two camps. One camp would be the "It's Cleaned Up" camp, which would view that, given the "cleansing" of FNM, FRE, LEH, MER, and BSC, the exorcism is done and we can finally shake off the credit crisis and move higher. The other camp might be called "Something Worse is Coming", which fears that a calamity underlying all the prior clean-ups is awaiting that no one can fathom.
The popular media promote – and have promoted – ideas from the first camp ever since the crisis began. You can find ample headlines from July 2007 saying that "the worst is over" when, in fact, the worst hadn't even started! I also think this sentiment is what can cause huge news days like this to result in the opening price begin the low of the day. Hell, in the ten minutes I've been sitting here (from 5 a.m. to 5:10 a.m.), the S&P futures have recovered 7 points! So if you told me that today closed with a small loss, or even in the green, I would not die of shock. Because people are always looking for that final financial enema to make the system well again.
Having said that, I approach this day with no small amount of caution. Things are crazy. When I went to bed, gold, oil, and the euro were all blasting higher. Now they're getting creamed! I see a lot of chatter in comments about how former morning plunges (like last January's) marked significant bottoms. I don't discount this, although I do recognize that the length of these post-bottom recoveries is getting shorter and shorter.
Seventy minutes until the opening bell. This is going to be another day for the books. Strap in.
I'm heading to bed, but I wanted to "clean the slate" for folks commenting. I'll probably be back in front of the screen at 5 a.m. or so. Something tells me Monday is going to be an interesting day. See you on the other side.
I figure the collapse of Lehman Brothers could use a theme song. It's going to be a sleepless night.
Big money goes around the world
Big money underground
Big money got a mighty voice
Big money make no sound
Big money pull a million strings
Big money hold the prize
Big money weave a mighty web
Big money draw the flies
Sometimes pushing people around
Sometimes pulling out the rug
Sometimes pushing all the buttons
Sometimes pulling out the plug
Its the power and the glory
Its a war in paradise
Its a cinderella story
On a tumble of the dice
Big money goes around the world
Big money take a cruise
Big money leave a mighty wake
Big money leave a bruise
Big money make a million dreams
Big money spin big deals
Big money make a mighty head
Big money spin big wheels
Sometimes building ivory towers
Sometimes knocking castles down
Sometimes building you a stairway —
Lock you underground
Its that old-time religion
Its the kingdom they would rule
Its the fool on television
Getting paid to play the fool
Big money goes around the world
Big money give and take
Big money done a power of good
Big money make mistakes
Big money got a heavy hand
Big money take control
Big money got a mean streak
Big money got no soul…
